Issue 17
 
Te Kete Aronui is one of the three baskets of knowledge. This basket represents the pursuit of knowledge to help humankind.

CASS Information Services creates Te Kete Aronui by scanning recent publications for evidence based research relevant to the work of The Treasury and DPMC.
 
In this Issue
Issue 17
Digital Economy
Disaster Recovery
Diversity and inclusion
Education
Financial Stability
Foresight
Health
Housing
Inequality / Poverty
Infrastructure
Labour market
Macroeconomics
Management / Leadership
Māori/Pacifika/Indigenous
Migration
Natural Resources
Policy-Making
Public Sector Management
Regulation
Security
Tax
Wider Interest
Recent literature searches
Digital Economy
On the investment credentials of Bitcoin: A cross-currency perspective
by Prateek Bedi
In Research in International Business and Finance January 2020 51

We examine diversification capabilities of Bitcoin for a global portfolio spread across six asset classes from the standpoint of investors dealing in five major fiat currencies namely US Dollar, Great Britain Pound, Euro, Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan. Considering the period of prolonged decline in Bitcoin’s value throughout 2018, we employ modified conditional value-at-risk and standard deviation as measures of risk to perform portfolio optimisations across three asset allocation strategies. Results show that portfolios denominated in Japanese Yen, Chinese Yuan and US Dollar account for greater proportion of optimal investment in Bitcoin and exhibit higher improvement in risk-adjusted returns due to investment in Bitcoin. We also perform a comprehensive risk-adjusted evaluation of portfolios with and without Bitcoin to reinforce striking variation in degree of diversification benefits of Bitcoin in a cross-currency context. Taken together, our findings provide insights into sharp disparity in Bitcoin trading volumes across national currencies from a portfolio theory perspective.
State of the art in the use of emerging technologies in the public sector.
Barbara Ubaldi, Enzo Maria Le Fevre, Elisa Petrucci, Pietro Marchionni, Claudio Biancalana, Nanni Hiltunen, Daniela Maria Intravaia and Chan Yang.
OECD Working Papers on Public Governance, No. 31, OECD Publishing, Paris.
2019.

This Working Paper is intended to highlight the main opportunities and challenges for the use of emerging technologies (ET), and in particular emerging digital technologies, in the public sector. Based on the first results of the analysis of evidence collected in 20 countries, the paper offers a few insights on the state of the art on the strategies and practical examples on how governments are attempting to integrate ET in the public sector.
 
Does gold or Bitcoin hedge economic policy uncertainty?
by Shan Wu
In Finance Research Letters December 2019 31:171-178

In this paper, we examine whether gold or Bitcoin is a safe haven against economic policy uncertainty (EPU).•We combine the GARCH model and quantile regression with dummy variables, which include the extreme situations of average condition and different quantiles.•Hedge and safe-haven roles of gold and Bitcoin against EPU shocks are correlated with their bearish or bullish market situation.•Bitcoin reacts more responsive to EPU shocks and gold maintains stability with smaller hedge and safe-haven coefficients.
Blockchain data-based cloud data integrity protection mechanism
by PengCheng Wei
In Future Generation Computer Systems January 2020 102:902-911

Despite the rapid development of cloud computing for many years, data security and trusted computing are still the main challenges in current cloud computing applications. In order to solve this problem, many scholars have carried out a lot of research on this, and proposed many models including data integrity test and secure multi-party calculation. However, most of these solutions face problems such as excessive computational complexity or lack of scalability. This paper studies the use of blockchain techniques to improve this situation. Blockchain is a decentralized new distributed computing paradigm. Applying blockchain technology to cloud computing, using the security mechanism of the former to improve the performance of the latter’s secure storage and secure computing is a promising research topic. In this paper, the distributed virtual machine agent model is deployed in the cloud by using mobile agent technology. The virtual machine agent enables multi-tenants to cooperate with each other to ensure data trust verification. The tasks of reliable data storage, monitoring and verification are completed by virtual machine agent mechanism. This is also a necessary condition for building a blockchain integrity protection mechanism. The blockchain-based integrity protection framework is built by the virtual machine proxy model, and the unique hash value corresponding to the file generated by the Merkel hash tree is used to monitor the data change by means of the smart contract on the blockchain, and the data is owned in time. The user issues a warning message for data tampering; in addition, a “block-and-response” mode is used to construct a blockchain-based cloud data integrity verification scheme.
Blockchain and the evolution of institutional technologies: Implications for innovation policy
by Darcy W.E. Allen
In Research Policy February 2020 49(1)

•Blockchain is an institutional technology that lowers the cost of institutional entrepreneurship across economic systems.•Blockchain lowers the cost of institutional innovation by reducing the transaction costs associated with contracting.•Evolutionary modelling shows blockchain technology providing entrepreneurial opportunities for improved economic coordination and governance.•Public policies geared toward adoption and usage of blockchain is conceived as a new feature of innovation policy.•Potential gains from blockchain institutional innovation present opportunities for economic discovery, learning and policy coordination.
Bitcoin price prediction using machine learning: An approach to sample dimension engineering.
by Zheshi Chen
Journal of Computational & Applied Mathematics. Feb2020, Vol. 365, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.

After the boom and bust of cryptocurrencies' prices in recent years, Bitcoin has been increasingly regarded as an investment asset. Because of its highly volatile nature, there is a need for good predictions on which to base investment decisions. Although existing studies have leveraged machine learning for more accurate Bitcoin price prediction, few have focused on the feasibility of applying different modeling techniques to samples with different data structures and dimensional features. To predict Bitcoin price at different frequencies using machine learning techniques, we first classify Bitcoin price by daily price and high-frequency price. A set of high-dimension features including property and network, trading and market, attention and gold spot price are used for Bitcoin daily price prediction, while the basic trading features acquired from a cryptocurrency exchange are used for 5-minute interval price prediction. Statistical methods including Logistic Regression and Linear Discriminant Analysis for Bitcoin daily price prediction with high-dimensional features achieve an accuracy of 66%, outperforming more complicated machine learning algorithms. Compared with benchmark results for daily price prediction, we achieve a better performance, with the highest accuracies of the statistical methods and machine learning algorithms of 66% and 65.3%, respectively. Machine learning models including Random Forest, XGBoost, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, Support Vector Machine and Long Short-term Memory for Bitcoin 5-minute interval price prediction are superior to statistical methods, with accuracy reaching 67.2%. Our investigation of Bitcoin price prediction can be considered a pilot study of the importance of the sample dimension in machine learning techniques.
Disaster Recovery
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Insurance Economics
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on education. 
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The role of data and information exchanges in transport system disaster recovery: A New Zealand case study
by D.M. Blake
In International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction October 2019 39

The Mw7.8 earthquake on 14 November 2016 near Kaikōura, New Zealand had major impacts on the country's transport system. Road, rail and port infrastructure was damaged, creating substantial disruption for transport operators, residents, tourists, and business owners across several regions. During the response and recovery phases, a large amount of information and data associated with the transport system was generated, managed, analysed, and exchanged within and between organisations to assist decision making.In this paper, we characterise how the transport system, infrastructure, and supply chain responded and adapted to earthquake-related disruptions and examine the flow and use of information in post-disaster (response and recovery) decision making across all transport modes. We present key findings from a post-earthquake assessment with the aim of improving information and data exchanges and related decision making in the transport sector during future events. This research commenced a year after the earthquake and involved 35 different stakeholder groups.Many information exchanges were effective, enabling the transport system to respond and adapt successfully, and allowing the continued mobility of users and goods. Organisations responding to transport disruptions drew on existing data sources in new ways, collected novel datasets, and leveraged relationships to manage information exchanges. There is, however, scope for improvement to reduce barriers to information exchanges and enhance post-disruption data usage between the numerous organisations involved in transport recovery. This may include improved clarity on organisational boundaries and an enhanced role for coordinators to act as single points of contact for transport sectors.
The psychological study of religion and spirituality in a disaster context: A systematic review.
by Jamie D. Aten
Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy, Vol 11(6), Sep, 2019. Religion and Spirituality in the Context of Disaster. pp. 597-613.

A total of 51 articles met the inclusion criteria. We organized the empirical findings under five main categories, which emerged from sorting studies by their primary R/S focus: (a) general religiousness, (b) God representations, (c) religious appraisals, (d) R/S meaning making, and (e) religious coping. On the whole, R/S appears to generally lead to positive outcomes among disaster survivors. Results suggest positive benefits of R/S comes more from how one engages faith and access to resources via R/S communities.
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Operational Strategies for Establishing Disaster-Resilient Schools: A Qualitative Study
by Samaneh Mirzaei
Advanced Journal of Emergency Medicine (2019)

Resilient schools can warranty students’ health and survival at disasters. It is obligatory that schools be prepared for natural challenges through local programs. Considering the great population of students, disaster-resilient schools can be a safe and suitable environment for students at the time of disaster. Objective: This study aims to identify certain operational strategies for establishing schools resilient to natural disasters. Method: This qualitative study was based on conventional content analysis. Using purposive sampling method, 24 experts in the fields of health in disasters, construction engineering, psychology, teaching, and administrative management participated in the study. Maximum variation sampling continued until data saturation was achieved. The data collected via unstructured interviews were analyzed with Graneheim and Lundmen’s conventional content analysis. Results: Content analysis resulted in four main categories as operational strategies for establishing disaster-resilient schools including: 1) “construction and non-construction optimization”, with four subcategories of construct risk management, optimization of construct architecture and physical structure, correct construct localization, and promotion of non-construct safety, 2) “promotion of organizational coordination and interactions” with two subcategories, namely improvement in intra-organizational communication and improvement in extra-organizational communication, 3) “improvement in education” with three subcategories of holding educational courses for families and students, holding educational courses for managers and personnel, and holding simulated exercises, and 4) “process promotion” with four subcategories of increased preparedness, correct planning, creation of organizational structure, and rehabilitation facilitation. Conclusion: Various factors affecting schools’ response to disasters form operational strategies to establish disaster-resilient schools. These strategies influence pre- and post-disaster preparedness. Awareness of these components followed by preparedness prior to disasters can save students’ lives, improve school performance after disasters, and aid in establishing disaster-resilient schools as safe lodgings.
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Indicators to assess organizational resilience – a review of empirical literature.
by Khalil Rahi
International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment; 2019, Vol. 10 Issue 2/3, p85-98, 14p

Purpose: This paper aims to explore the empirical literature on organizational resilience. The goal consists of identifying and understanding the indicators used to evaluate organizational resilience and instigating the development of indicators to assess resilience in other areas, such as project management and critical infrastructure. Design/methodology/approach: A review of recent empirical studies is conducted to collect information on the indicators used to assess organizational resilience. Findings: A range of interrelated indicators aiming to measure organizational resilience in two dimensions is shown in this literature review: awareness and adaptive capacity. Awareness is the ability of an organization to assess its environment and interpret the changes in its surroundings, both now and in the future, to be proactive and better manage possible disruptive events. On the other hand, adaptive capacity is the organization's capacity to transform its structure, processes, culture, etc. for recovering once faced with a disruptive event. Awareness forms the main base of the organization's adaptive capacity. Originality/value: Organizational resilience contributes to the safe development of the built environment. This concept helps organizations to cope with disruptions. However, little research has been conducted on the indicators to assess organizational resilience, in different fields. Moreover, these indicators' credibility is based on empirical studies.
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Implementing Disaster Policy: Exploring Scale and Measurement Schemes for Disaster Resilience.
by Susan L. Cutter
Journal of Homeland Security & Emergency Management. Sep2019, Vol. 16 Issue 3, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 14p. 1 Diagram, 4 Charts, 2 Maps.

Resilience measurement continues to be a meeting ground between policy makers and academics. However, there are inherent limitations in measuring disaster resilience. For example, resilience indicators produced by FEMA and one produced by an independent academic group (BRIC) measure community resilience by defining and quantifying community resilience at a national level, but they each have a different conceptual model of the resilience concept. The FEMA approach focuses on measuring resilience capacity based on preparedness capabilities embodied in the National Preparedness Goals at state and county scales. BRIC examines community (spatially defined as county) components (or capitals) that influence resilience and provides a baseline of pre-existing resilience in places to enable periodic updates to measure resilience improvements. Using these two approaches as examples, this paper examines the differences and similarities in these two approaches in terms of the conceptual framing, data resolution, and representation and the resultant statistical and spatial differences in outcomes. Users of resilience measurement tools need to be keenly aware of the conceptual framing, input data, and geographic scale of any schema before implementation as these parameters can and do make a difference in the outcome even when they claim to be measuring the same concept.
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Dichotomies of disaster management: a reflection on the politics of efficient decision making.
by David Oliver Kasdan
Disaster Prevention & Management. 2019, Vol. 28 Issue 5, p670-676. 7p.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the variety of dichotomies related to disaster management with an objective to gain a better understanding of how and when dichotomous thinking can improve disaster management, especially in the discourse of disaster management politics. Design/methodology/approach: This is a reflective essay that surveys dichotomies from multiple disciplines in respect to their potential contributions to disaster management. Findings: Thinking about disaster management as a collection or series of dichotomies may help to better understand the sources, vulnerabilities, approaches, modes, methods and modes for related decision-making scenarios, particularly in the political realm. Research limitations/implications: The world is not so simply divided at every turn and dichotomous thinking may harbor biases, mask ignorance and/or offend postmodern notions of alterity. Practical implications: Portraying disaster management through dichotomies is an efficient way for experts to convey information and structure decisions for political agendas. Originality/value: This study presents a unique perspective of disaster management and how it may shape the thinking and decision making of disaster management politics.
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Assessing the resilience of an IT portfolio.
by Matthew Ricks
Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning. Autumn/Fall2019, Vol. 13 Issue 1, p22-31. 10p. 5 Charts.

One of the goals of the business impact analysis (BIA) process is to establish recovery objectives. Having established recovery objectives, the next step is to assess whether one's IT portfolio can actually meet those objectives. Unfortunately, there is no well-defined and prescriptive process for this. This article describes a model that can be customised and applied in any organisation to take an IT-centric view to assessing resilience capabilities. The first stage of this process is to gather IT-specific data, either through a questionnaire or by querying the configuration management database directly. The next step is to leverage a set of scoring rubrics in order to assess the capabilities of each application with respect to meeting recovery point objectives, recovery time objectives and service-level targets, as well as the strength of staffing, documentation and disaster recovery plans. The output of the model is a composite score for each application (based upon an aggregate capability score and a weighting factor) that identifies those services in the IT portfolio with the greatest gaps in their capabilities (ie those services in greatest need of remediation). The logic of the model can either be built with spreadsheets or automated through business continuity management planning platforms.
Diversity and inclusion 
Post the Christchurch attacks: What leaders can do to foster a more inclusive culture.
by Kirsten Patterson
NZ Business + Management, 01/07/2019, Vol. 33 Issue 6, pM19-M19, 1p

The article offers information on Christchurch attacks where the pledge was committed by all who signed it to fight the spread of terrorist and extremist content online. Topics discussed include cultural inclusiveness which needs to be accepting of everything that brings diversity into the workplace; and discusses that diversity of thought and experience is essential as it builds organisational success and creates a more relevant and interesting workplace and life journey.
How Generation Z Can Help Companies Build A Highly Diverse Workforce: Three ways to follow.
by Osnat Shostak
Leadership Excellence. Sep2019, Vol. 36 Issue 9, p28-29. 2p.

Leadership Excellence presented by HR.com SEPTEMBER 2019 28 Submit Your Articles How Generation Z Can Help Companies Build A Highly Diverse Workforce Copyright of Leadership Excellence is the property of HR.com, Inc. and its content may not.
Gender diversity and say‐on‐pay: Evidence from UK remuneration committees.
by Nasser Alkalbani
Corporate Governance: An International Review. Sep2019, Vol. 27 Issue 5, p378-400. 23p.

Research question/issue: We examine whether the presence of women on the remuneration committee has an influence on say‐on‐pay voting. Research findings/insights: Based on panel data from the UK's FTSE 350 firms from 2003 to 2015, we find that firms with women on the remuneration committee reduce shareholders' dissent via say‐on‐pay. However, only firms with a critical mass of more than 30% women on this committee are more likely to have less shareholders' dissent via say‐on‐pay (i.e., the presence of 30% women or less on this committee is not sufficient). Theoretical/academic implications: Our results provide empirical evidence that the gender diversity of directors on the remuneration committee plays a significant role in shaping shareholders' dissent via say‐on‐pay in the United Kingdom. Our results also provide empirical support for some of the previous studies that draw on critical mass theory that imply that women are more effective monitors when they make up a critical mass of more than 30%. Practitioner/policy implications: Our results could provide regulators with evidence in favor of improving women's representation on UK remuneration committees. In addition, our results could help shareholders and nomination committee members understand the importance of having women on UK remuneration committees, as they are more likely to avoid suboptimal pay and align directors' remuneration packages more closely with shareholders' expectations. Finally, our results could also attract the attention of main stakeholders and the media, especially given their increasing attention both to gender diversity and say‐on‐pay.
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D&I Done Right.
by ELIZABETH LOUTFI
Chief Learning Officer; Sep2019, Vol. 18 Issue 7, p52-55, 4p, 1 Diagram

" Harris said D&I programs and trainings shouldn't be part of an initiative, but instead be viewed as part of a shift in workplace culture. To maintain an inclusive workplace culture, Reardon said Continental's talent management and organizational development team offers various trainings and opportunities throughout the year for professional and personal development. Where We Go From Here In July 2018, Starbucks announced it was continuing its anti-bias training efforts with 12 training modules it created for its associates and managers with outside resources and help.
A framework for understanding the effects of past experiences on justice expectations and perceptions of human resource inclusion practices.
by Samantha L. Jordan
Human Resource Management Review. Sep2019, Vol. 29 Issue 3, p386-399. 14p.

As organizational diversity becomes increasingly common, human resource departments must learn to effectively manage heterogeneity through the development of inclusionary practices. Although HR diversity and inclusion (D&I) practices seem like an adequate solution to workplace diversity, employee past experience and anticipatory justice regarding the fairness of HR initiatives may offer an explanation as to why such practices are not always successful at leading to positive perceptions and outcomes across employees. To begin to address this question, we use theory on uncertainty management to describe the role of cognitive biases on recollections of past experiences, and the role of anticipatory justice on fairness perceptions. Moreover, we argue for several moderators of the past experience—justice expectations and of the justice expectation—justice perceptions relationships. The contributions of this proposed framework are discussed as are directions for future research and practical implications. • We conceptualize the role of anticipatory justice on justice perceptions. • We posit the role of information processing biases on justice expectations. • We consider moderators of the justice expectation—justice perception relationship.
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To Build an Inclusive Culture, Start with Inclusive Meetings.
by Kathryn Heath
Harvard Business Review Digital Articles. 9/6/2019, p2-5. 4p.

Meetings matter. They are the forum where people come together to discuss ideas,
make decisions, and be heard. Meetings are where culture forms, grows, and takes hold.
So it stands to reason that if an organization desires a more inclusive culture — and leaders want to
model inclusion — then meetings are the place to start.
Education
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Education 
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on education. 
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The Future of Undergraduate Education: Will Differences across Sectors Exacerbate Inequality?
by Daniel I. Greenstein
Daedalus. Fall2019, Vol. 148 Issue 4, p108-137. 30p.

This essay looks at how different sectors of U.S. higher education are funded, the students they serve, and the outcomes they deliver for those students. It raises serious policy questions about whether the distribution of public funds across this highly segmented industry both reflects and contributes to growing inequality in this country. It also asks whether recent trends in educational innovation and the impact of technology innovation in higher education will exacerbate or ameliorate that inequality. While the evidence is disturbing, the essay concludes optimistically. The past, it suggests, need not be prologue in higher education. The path forward for our industry, while highly constrained, can as yet be shaped through thoughtful, conscious, and analytically driven choices at individual, institutional, and state and federal policy levels.
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Balancing school choice and equity
An international perspective based on PISA.

Many countries are struggling to reconcile greater flexibility in school choice with the need to ensure quality, equity and coherence in their school systems. This report provides an international perspective on issues related to school choice, especially how certain aspects of school-choice policies may be associated with sorting students into different schools. A key question fuelling the school-choice debate is whether greater competition among schools results in more sorting of students by ability or socio-economic status. At the macro level, school segregation can deprive children of opportunities to learn, play and communicate with other children from different social, cultural and ethnic backgrounds, which can, in turn, threaten social cohesion. The report draws a comprehensive picture of school segregation, using a variety of indicators in order to account for the diversity of the processes by which students are allocated to schools.
 
How is an inclusive agenda possible in an excluding education system? Revisiting the Danish Dilemma.
by Tobias Colling Larsen
International Journal of Inclusive Education. Oct2019, Vol. 23 Issue 10, p1049-1064. 16p.

The policy of inclusion in the Scandinavian countries is often related to the idea of the welfare state, and specifically to notions of equality, equity and democracy. The image of the welfare state seems to live well, even though structural and social barriers seem to maintain inequality when it comes to access to education. Instead of overcoming the barriers, the politics of inclusion may actually make the gap between ideals and realities more visible. In this article, we analyse the political efforts to create a more inclusive education system in Denmark in relation to these structural barriers. By applying the notions of discourse and dispositive of Foucault, we argue that the policies of educational inclusion encompass rationales and governing techniques directed at the societal and individual levels that may in itself challenge the inclusive agenda. By highlighting some of the political notions of inclusion, we highlight the discrepancies between inclusion as a political project and the structural barriers on the one hand, and inclusion as educational practice on the other. This challenges the previously accepted image of how well the Scandinavian welfare state is doing, especially as it relates to solving the gap between privilege and disadvantage in education.
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Fostering students' creativity and critical thinking
What it means in school
Centre for Educational Research and Innovation.
OECD
 
Creativity and critical thinking are key skills for complex, globalised and increasingly digitalised economies and societies. While teachers and education policy makers consider creativity and critical thinking as important learning goals, it is still unclear to many what it means to develop these skills in a school setting. To make it more visible and tangible to practitioners, the OECD worked with networks of schools and teachers in 11 countries to develop and trial a set of pedagogical resources that exemplify what it means to teach, learn and make progress in creativity and critical thinking in primary and secondary education. Through a portfolio of rubrics and examples of lesson plans, teachers in the field gave feedback, implemented the proposed teaching strategies and documented their work. Instruments to monitor the effectiveness of the intervention in a validation study were also developed and tested, supplementing the insights on the effects of the intervention in the field provided by the team co-ordinators.
What are the key elements of creativity and critical thinking? What pedagogical strategies and approaches can teachers adopt to foster them? How can school leaders support teachers' professional learning? To what extent did teachers participating in the project change their teaching methods? How can we know whether it works and for whom? These are some of the questions addressed in this book, which reports on the outputs and lessons of this international project.
 
 
Educating 21st century children
Emotional well-being in the digital age.
Centre for Educational Research and Innovation.
OECD, 2019
 
What is the nature of childhood today? On a number of measures, modern children’s lives have clearly improved thanks to better public safety and support for their physical and mental health. New technologies help children to learn, socialise and unwind, and older, better-educated parents are increasingly playing an active role in their children's education.
At the same time, we are more connected than ever before, and many children have access to tablets and smartphones before they learn to walk and talk. Twenty-first century children are more likely to be only children, increasingly pushed to do more by “helicopter parents” who hover over their children to protect them from potential harm. In addition to limitless online opportunities, the omnipresent nature of the digital world brings new risks, like cyber-bullying, that follow children from the schoolyard into their homes.
This report examines modern childhood, looking specifically at the intersection between emotional well-being and new technologies. It explores how parenting and friendships have changed in the digital age. It examines children as digital citizens, and how best to take advantage of online opportunities while minimising the risks. The volume ends with a look at how to foster digital literacy and resilience, highlighting the role of partnerships, policy and protection.
 
Educational policies and social inequality in well-being among young adults.
by Björn Högberg
British Journal of Sociology of Education. Jul2019, Vol. 40 Issue 5, p664-681. 18p.

Inequalities in health and well-being are important contemporary public health issues. This article is the first to investigate the institutional causes of inequality in well-being among youth in a comparative perspective. Data from the European Social Survey are used to analyse how educational policies moderate the association between social background and well-being. Multilevel techniques are used to investigate cross-level interactions between social background and educational policies on life satisfaction. Four indicators of inclusive educational policies are analysed: age of tracking, costs of education, enrolment rates, and second-chance opportunities in the educational system. The results show that educational policies indeed moderate the association between social background and well-being: inequalities as measured by the father's social class are smaller in countries where educational policies are more inclusive. Moreover, the analysis shows that the moderating impact of education policies is mediated by individual-level education, activity status, and income.
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Channels of Inequality of Opportunity: The Role of Education and Occupation in Europe.
by Juan C. Palomino
Social Indicators Research; Jun2019, Vol. 143 Issue 3, p1045-1074, 30p, 3 Charts, 4 Graphs, 2 Maps

Inequality of Opportunity (IO) refers to that inequality stemming from factors, called circumstances, beyond the scope of individual responsibility, such as gender, race, place of birth or socioeconomic background. In general, circumstances do not directly convert into future individual's income. Indeed, different circumstances in childhood lead to different levels of education and different occupational categories which, in turn, contribute to generate divergent levels of income during adulthood. Using the Intergenerational Transmission modules in 2005 and 2011 from the EU-SILC, we estimate the importance of attained education and occupational category as mediating channels in the generation of IO in 26 European countries. We find that the attained level of education channels up to 30% of total IO, with important differences across Europe. Once attained education is taken into account, occupation explains less than 5% of IO in most countries. Moreover, the importance of education as a channel for IO is negatively correlated both with the share of the population that attains tertiary levels of education and with the importance of government expenditure in education relative to GDP.
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Transitions from unemployment to education in Europe: The role of educational policies
BJÖRN HÖGBERG
Volume 48, Issue 4; October 2019 , pp. 699-720
 
The aim of this study is to investigate cross-country variability in transition rates from unemployment to further education among young adults, as well as how barriers in educational systems affect these transition rates. Previous research on adult further education has largely neglected the role of policies, and has not taken unemployed people into account.
Two dimensions of educational policies are investigated. (1) Barriers facing prospective students with regard to previous academic achievements (e.g. second chance opportunities); and (2) financial barriers (e.g. high costs). It is hypothesized that low barriers are associated with higher transition rates into education, especially for unemployed young adults with lower levels of education.
The aim is approached by investigating how differences in transition rates across countries are linked to the design of educational policies. Cross-country standardised individual-level panel data from 29 European countries are taken from EU-SILC. Multilevel multinomial models are fitted.
Results show that lower barriers in the education system are associated with higher probabilities that unemployed young adults leave unemployment to re-enter further education, although only partial support is found for the hypothesis that unemployed young adults with lower levels of education gain relatively more from low barriers. Low barriers are sometimes associated with lower transition rates into employment.
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Financial Stability
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Financial Markets
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on financial markets. 
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NEP (New Economic Papers) - Banking
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on banking. 
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NEP (New Economic Papers) - Insurance Economics
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on insurance economics. 
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Does monetary policy respond to uncertainty? Evidence from Australia.
Natalia Ponomareva, Jeffrey Sheen, Ben Zhe Wang
The Australian Economic Review Volume 52 Issue 3.
 
We construct a novel measure of uncertainty using expert monetary policy recommendation data for Australia. Our results suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) tends to lower the cash rate when expert uncertainty is high. This result is robust to using other uncertainty measures.
 
Measuring uncertainty for New Zealand using rich data-rich approach.
Trung Duc Tran, Tugrul Vehbi, Benjamin Wong.
The Australian Economic Review Volume 52 Issue 3.
 
This paper develops two state‐of‐the‐art uncertainty indices for New Zealand by exploiting two separate data‐rich environments. The first index follows the methodology outlined in Jurado, Ludvigson and Ng (2015) to construct an estimate of uncertainty based on a large New Zealand macro dataset. The second index is constructed based on freely accessible and real time Google Trends data to provide a real‐time and freely‐accessible measure of uncertainty as in Castelnuovo and Tran (2017) and Shields and Tran (2018). Both indices do a reasonable job measuring uncertainty in New Zealand. VAR evidence documents significant impacts of uncertainty shocks on GDP in New Zealand.
 
Negative correlation between retirement age and length of contribution?
Erik Granseth and others
Oxford Economic Papers, Volume 71, Issue 4, October 2019, Pages 1050–1070
 
Though never stated explicitly, there is a hidden hypothesis that in a normal pension system, the retirement age and the length of contribution are strongly and positively correlated. We compare the time paths of male and female correlation coefficients in Austria, Germany, Hungary and Sweden for several years and categories; and obtain a mixed picture. Hungary and Austria stand out with their strong negative correlation but the remaining two countries cannot boast with strongly positive correlation, either. Further work is needed to understand the significance of our findings but they signal some problems with these systems: heterogeneously fragmented careers and unfair benefit rules.
 
Sustained investment surges
Emiliano Libman, Juan Antonio Montecino, Arslan Razmi
Oxford Economic Papers, Volume 71, Issue 4, October 2019
 
Existing empirical studies have mainly focused on determinants of average investment levels. Instead, we investigate episodes of accelerated capital stock growth having a duration of eight years or longer. We find that episodes are relatively common, even in low-growth regions, but more so in middle-income and Asian countries. After identifying 175 episodes between 1950 and 2014, we employ probit analysis to explore their characteristics. Turning points in investment tend to be preceded by macroeconomic stability, real exchange rate undervaluation, and net capital outflows (especially portfolio outflows). We also find a negative correlation with the capital to output ratio and per capita GDP, and a positive correlation with a human capital index. Investment surges tend to be associated with changes in the trade balance and, to a (statistically) weaker extent, with structural change.
 
Two Harvard Economists on Monetary Economics: Lauchlin Currie and Hyman Minsky on Financial Systems and Crises
by Ivan D. Velasquez
Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, July 2019, v. 42, iss. 3, pp. 487-501

In November 1987, Hyman Minsky visited Bogota, Colombia, after being invited by a group of professors who at that time were interested in post Keynesian economics. There, Minsky delivered some lectures, and Lauchlin Currie attended two of those lectures at the National University of Colombia. Although Currie is not as well-known as Minsky in the American academy, both are outstanding figures in the development of non-orthodox approaches to monetary economics. Both alumni of the economics Ph.D. program at Harvard had a debate in Bogota. Unfortunately, there are no formal records of this, so here a question arises: What could have been their respective positions? The aim of this article is to discuss Currie's and Minsky's perspectives on monetary economics and to speculate on what might have been said during their debate.
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The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries
by Simiao Chen
In The Lancet Planetary Health September 2019 3(9):e390-e398

Summary Background Road injuries are among the ten leading causes of death worldwide and also impede economic wellbeing and macroeconomic performance. Beyond medical data on the incidence of road injuries and their resulting morbidity and mortality, a detailed understanding of their economic implications is a prerequisite for sound, evidence-based policy making. We aimed to determine global macroeconomic costs of road traffic injuries and their cross-country distribution.
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE IMPLEMENTATION OF MONETARY AND MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW.
by Alexander Lubis
Journal of Economic Surveys; Sep2019, Vol. 33 Issue 4, p1123-1150, 28p, 5 Diagrams, 5 Charts, 1 Graph

The emergence of macroprudential policies, implemented by central banks as a means of promoting financial stability, has raised many questions regarding the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies. Given the limited number of studies available, this paper sheds light on this issue by providing a critical and systematic review of the literature. To this end, we divide the theoretical and empirical studies into two broad channels of borrowers – consisting of the cost of funds and the collateral constraint – and financial intermediaries – consisting of risk‐taking and payment systems. In spite of the existing ambiguity surrounding coordination issues between monetary and macroprudential policies, it is argued that monetary policy alone is not sufficient to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability. Hence, macroprudential policies are needed to supplement monetary. In addition, we find that the role of the exchange rate is critical in the implementation of monetary and macroprudential policies in emerging markets, while volatile capital flows pose another challenge. In so far as how the arrangement of monetary and macroprudential policies varies across countries, key theoretical and policy implications have been identified.
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Role of Bank Regulation on Bank Performance: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Commercial Banks.
by Zhenni Yang
Journal of Risk & Financial Management, Sep2019, v. 12, Iss. 3

The banking industry is an essential financial intermediary, thus the efficient operation of banks is vital for economic development and social welfare. However, the 2008 global financial crisis triggered a reconsideration of the banking systems, as well as the role of government intervention. The literature has paid little attention to the banking industry in the Asia-Pacific region in the context of bank efficiency. This study employs double bootstrap data envelopment analysis to measure bank efficiency and examine the relationship between regulation, supervision, and state ownership in commercial banks in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 2005 to 2014. Our results indicate that excluding off-balance sheet activities in efficiency estimations lead to underestimating of the pure technical efficiency, while overestimating the scale efficiency of banks in the Asia-Pacific region. Cross-country comparisons reveal that Australian banks exhibit the highest levels of technical efficiency, while Indonesian banks exhibit the lowest average. Our bootstrap regression results suggest that bank regulation and supervision are positively related to bank technical efficiency, while state ownership is not significantly related to bank efficiency. Furthermore, our findings show that tighter regulation and supervision are significantly related to higher efficiency for small and large-sized banks.
 
Interbank credit and the money manufacturing process: a systemic perspective on financial stability.
by Yuri Biondi
Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination. Sept, 2019, Vol. 14 Issue 3, p437, 32 p.

Interbank lending and borrowing occur when financial institutions seek to settle and refinance their mutual positions over time and circumstances. This interactive process involves money creation at the aggregate level. Coordination mismatch on interbank credit may trigger systemic crises. This happened when, since summer 2007, interbank credit coordination did not longer work smoothly across financial institutions, eventually requiring exceptional monetary policies by central banks, and guarantee and bailout interventions by governments. Our article develops an interacting heterogeneous agent-based model of interbank credit coordination under minimal institutions. First, we explore the link between interbank credit coordination and the money generation process. Contrary to received wisdom, interbank credit has the capacity to remove the inner limits of monetary system capacitance. Second, we develop simulation analysis on imperfect interbank credit coordination, studying impact of interbank dynamics on financial stability and resilience at individual and aggregate levels. Systemically destabilizing forces prove to be related to the working of the banking system over time, especially interbank coordination conditions and circumstances.
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Financial connectivity and excessive liquidity: Benefit or risk?
by Müge Demir
In Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money September 2019 62:203-221

Highlights •We investigate the relationship between financial stability and connectivity during 1978-2016.•We examine bank-to-bank and bank-to-non-bank cross-border flows across 13 advanced countries.•Connectivity is measured by using network analysis.•We find that an increase in financial connectivity reduces the probability of systemic crises.•This effect is found to be mitigated or eliminated in credit boom and capital inflow periods.
Financial Stability of Insurance Companies in Selected CEE Countries
by Pavić Kramarić Tomislava
Business Systems Research, Vol 10, Iss 2, Pp 163-178 (2019)

Background: Financial stability or soundness of insurance companies has gained importance over the years, especially after the financial crisis of 2008. Various stakeholders such as policy makers, regulators, the insured, etc. are interested in keeping the insurance sector stable since it contributes to overall financial stability.
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Drivers of solvency risk – Are microfinance institutions different?
by Markus Schulte
In Journal of Banking and Finance September 2019 106:403-426

Based on a dataset covering 2938 banks and 1078 microfinance institutions (MFIs) operating in 106 countries this paper compares drivers of MFI and bank solvency risk. Measuring solvency risk by the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio we find that several factors driving the bank NPL ratio play a more subdued role for MFIs. By contrast, MFI Z-scores, notably those of MFI banks, credit unions and other MFIs, are driven by largely the same factors as bank Z-scores. The difference in results can be linked to the special characteristics of credit technologies pursued by MFIs. Given that the Z-score is the broader risk measure we conclude from our results that larger and deposit taking MFIs should be subject to the same regulatory and supervisory regimes as banks.
Competition and risk taking in banking: The charter value hypothesis revisited
by Stefan Arping
In Journal of Banking and Finance October 2019 107

Conventional wisdom suggests that greater competition in banking, by eroding bank charter values, exacerbates banks’ incentives to take excessive risks. This paper presents a model in which, contrary to this view, competition can cause banks to act more prudently: As competition intensifies and profit margins decline, banks face more-binding threats of failure, to which they may respond by taking lower risks. Nonetheless, competition is unambiguously destabilizing in this model: The direct effect of lower margins on bank failure rates always outweighs the prudence effect. A key implication is that the effects of competition on bank risk taking and on failure risk can move in opposite directions.
Bank globalization and financial stability: International evidence
by Haiyan Yin
In Research in International Business and Finance October 2019 49:207-224

With a comprehensive dataset covering 129 countries over 1995–2013, this study investigates the impact of bank globalization on financial stability. I find strong evidence that foreign bank entry increases both loan risk and the overall risk of bank failure, and threatens the financial stability of the host country. However, this link is dependent on the regulatory and institutional framework of the host country. The adverse impact from foreign banks can be mitigated when the host country has more restrictions on fee-generating activities, less stringent capital requirement, more asset diversification guidelines, a single supervisor, less government-owned banks, lower market entry barrier, and/or less effective credit information sharing. Instead, foreign bank entry could even lower bank risk when host country regulations on bank activities are highly restrictive, capital requirement is less stringent, and/or market entry barrier is low. The need to improve financial stability and that to reduce the adverse impact of foreign bank entry impose conflicting demand on some bank regulations, thus policymakers need to balance both needs and carefully condition the prudential regulations to ensure financial stability and at the same time minimize the adverse impact from foreign bank entry.
Bank capital regulation: How do Asian banks respond?
by Quang Thi Thieu Nguyen
In Pacific-Basin Finance Journal October 2019 57

Capital regulation is a primary focus of regulators to maintain the stability and credibility of the financial system. However, whether banks increase capital and reduce the risk to respond to the capital regulation is uncertain. Examining this issue on Asian banks during the period between 2002 and 2016, this study finds that capital regulation has a negative effect on bank capital and no influence on bank risk. Stricter capital regulation even increases the bank's probability of default. This is because the capital regulation reduces banks' per-period future profits and thus, harms their franchise value. This effect is also a result of the relative high capital ratios of Asian banks compared to the minimum requirements. We also find that market characteristics and the bank capital regulatory environment are less relevant to bank capital and risk behaviours. In addition, strengthening the regulation during the crisis period increases bank risk while inducing banks to focus more on improving the equity ratio and the asset quality during the Basel III revision period.
Foresight
The quantitative effects of tax foresight: Not all states are equal
by Ana María Herrera
In Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control October 2019 107

This paper explores the effect of federal tax news on state economic activity. We estimate a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model, which allows us to consider the possibility that unobserved factors – such as credit and fiscal conditions – might be relevant for modeling the dynamic response of aggregate and state-level economic activity. We identify tax foresight as a shock to the implicit tax rate, measured by the yield spread between the one-year tax-exempt municipal bond and the one-year taxable Treasury bond. Our results suggest that an increase in the implicit tax rate raises national output over much of the anticipation period. In addition, anticipated tax increases give rise to expansions in state personal income and employment. We find that the variation in the responsiveness of economic activity across states is mostly explained by differences in industrial composition and income distribution, as well as by some demographic characteristics such as median income and education. Finally, using a proxy for exogenous changes in federal tax revenues, we investigate the dynamics of state-level personal income and employment. Our results point to considerable heterogeneity in the response across U.S. states. Moreover, they reveal that the long-run multiplier for an anticipated increase in tax revenues is about a tenth of the short-run multiplier for an unanticipated increase in taxes.
The History and Future of Anticipatory Democracy and Foresight.
by Clem Bezold
World Future Review; Sep2019, Vol. 11 Issue 3, p273-282, 10p

Anticipatory democracy involves enhanced participation in shaping the future. Foresight involves applying futures tools to decision making. The Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) over its four decades of work with communities, governments, and companies has evolved its "aspirational futures" approach that calls for creating expectable, challenging, and visionary scenarios and using these to enhance vision and the creation of preferred futures. Jim Dator's approach to scenario development was IAF's starting place. IAF has supported foresight in executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government, with the largest companies and nonprofit organizations, across six continents. Humanity is maturing, and the values of equity and inclusion are rising globally. Economies are transforming, including major job loss to automation and "abundance advances" technologies that provide low cost energy, 3D printing and local manufacturing, and home and community food production that have the potential to lower the cost of living. Foresight must be applied to understand and help create equitable and sustainable futures using these abundance advances in a transformed economy.
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Horizon scanning in policy research database with a probabilistic topic model
by Hyunuk Kim
In Technological Forecasting & Social Change Sep 2016

National governments take advantage of collective intelligence when conducting foresight processes. They grasp emerging issues through expert reviews as well as public opinions. It raises national agendas and affects policy-making process. Therefore, by examining policy papers which contain societal issues, we can perceive past, current, and future environments. In this study, we exploit policy research database of Republic of Korea, which is a unique source that automatically collects all policy papers written by national research institutes, to extract latent topics and their trends over 10 years through a probabilistic topic model. Detected topics fairly correspond to expert-selected future drivers in national foresight report, implying that public discourse and policy agenda are coupled. We suggest to utilize open government data and text mining methods for building open foresight framework that various actors exchange their opinions on societal issues.
Evaluating Health Futures in Aotearoa.
by Malcolm Bruce Menzies
World Future Review; Dec2019, Vol. 11 Issue 4, p379-395, 17p

This article describes a high-level evaluation of a scenario exercise that took place in the New Zealand health sector in 1997 and derives some lessons for future evaluations. By extension, such an evaluation tests the efficacy of scenario development and futures thinking (foresight) in general. Context for the evaluation is provided by a brief reflection on scenarios as a technique, both generally and in the health field. Then a discussion of the process used in 1997 to develop five scenarios is followed by a description of the logic and methodology for the evaluation itself. Findings suggest that the process used to develop the 1997 scenarios was valuable in opening up decision-makers' minds to possibilities without them needing to feel threatened or defensive, but it may not have been inclusive enough for the New Zealand context. Using criteria identified by Schoemaker the scenarios themselves were relevant, credible, and coherent, but not particularly archetypal or long term. Their impact on strategic decision-making was short-lived, but they were prescient in many respects and have been referred to within academia. Future considerations of health futures should be clearer as to purpose, get more explicit buy-in of key decision-makers and draw on a more diverse range of inputs. We also suggest that rather than being carried out during a discrete time period, scenario development should be a continuous and constantly updated process.
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European electricity sector decarbonization under different levels of foresight
by C. Gerbaulet
In Renewable Energy October 2019 141:973-987

The European Union has set out to reduce the carbon intensity of its electricity generation substantially, as defined in the European Roadmap 2050. This paper analyses the impact of foresight towards decarbonization targets on the investment decisions in the European electricity sector using a specific model developed by the authors called dynELMOD. Incorporating the climate targets makes the investment into any additional fossil capacity uneconomic from 2025 onwards, resulting in a coal and natural gas phase-out in the 2040s. Limited foresight thus results in stranded investments of fossil capacities in the 2020s. Using a CO2 budgetary approach, on the other hand, leads to an even sharper emission reduction in the early periods before 2030, reducing overall costs. We also find that renewables carry the major burden of decarbonization; nuclear power (3rd or 4th generation) is unable to compete with other fuels and will, therefore, be phased out over time.
Anticipating global energy, climate and policy in 2055: Constructing qualitative and quantitative narratives
by Dawud Ansari
In Energy Research & Social Science December 2019 58

This study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary scenarios (‘narratives’) that provide insight into four distinct and diverging yet plausible worlds. They combine qualitative and quantitative elements in order to reflect the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. We use the STEMPLE+ framework to include social, technological, economic, military (security), political, environmental, and cultural (+) dimensions in our narratives. We present the construction of the narratives, which started with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using foresight analysis techniques, including a facilitated expert workshop. We then calibrated the numerical energy and resource market model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we combined and refined the storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives.The study generates insights into the key assumptions and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Moreover, a set of transparent and discriminatory indicators serves to identify which paths the world might take. They include quantitative results, e.g. emissions, energy consumption and electricity mix, as well as developments in the political or social sphere. Lessons learnt include the dangers of increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives, as well as the significant role of civil society. However, we also show that the development of renewables and electrification are inappropriate indicators for a successful energy transition, as these trends are also consistent with emission-intensive scenarios.
A time for creativity: How future-oriented schemas facilitate creativity
by Brandon Koh
In Journal of Experimental Social Psychology September 2019 84

According to the creative cognition approach, extraordinarily creative ideas are rare because people often generate ideas by retrieving and incrementally modifying concepts from accessible schemas. Grounded in social schema research, we hypothesize that a future-orientation is a means to broaden thinking through activating change and progress schemas, which in turn facilitates creativity. We first offered qualitative evidence that people generally hold a schema that the future is inundated with change and progress. In three experimental studies, we established the creative benefit of future-oriented (vs. present-oriented) thinking in divergent thinking tasks. Further, we offered support that schemas of change and progress mediate the link between future-oriented (vs. present-oriented) thinking and creativity (Study 2) and demonstrated the causal role of schema activation by manipulating accessibility of change and progress schemas under a future-orientation (Study 3). We discuss the implications of how the study of schematic future projections contributes to creative cognition.
Health 
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Health Economics
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on health. 
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Responding to adverse childhood experiences: A child and adolescent psychiatrist's perspective.
by Joan Haliburn
Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry, 01/05/2019, Vol. 53 Issue 5, p473-474, 2p

The article presents comments of he author on the research paper "Responding to Adverse Childhood Experiences: A Paediatrician's Perspective," by H. Hiscock and colleagues published in the "Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry." It is noted that the paper is on mental health at all levels and problem of anxiety, attention deficit and behaviour problems in children.
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Health for everyone
Social inequalities in Health and Health Systems.
OECD, 2019.
 
 Good health is a key component of people’s well-being. It is a value in itself but – through its influence on social, education and labour market outcomes – being in good or bad health has also wider implications on people’s chances of leading a fulfilling and productive life. Yet, even in the OECD countries, health inequality persists with severe consequences on the goal of promoting inclusive growth. This report documents a comprehensive range of inequalities in health and health systems to the detriment of disadvantaged population groups in a large set of OECD and EU countries. It assesses the gaps in health outcomes and risk factors between different socio-economic groups. When it comes to health systems, the report measures inequalities in health care utilisation, unmet needs and the affordability of health care services. For each of these different domains, the report identifies groups of countries that display higher, intermediate, and low levels of inequality. The report makes a strong case for addressing health-related inequalities as a key component of a policy strategy to promote inclusive growth and reduce social inequalities. It also provides a framework for more in-depth analyses on how to address these inequalities at country level.
 
The relative price of healthy and less healthy foods available in Australian school canteens.
by Natassja Billich
Health Promotion International. Aug2019, Vol. 34 Issue 4, p677-686. 10p.

School canteens have an important role in modelling a healthy food environment. Price is a strong predictor of food and beverage choice. This study compared the relative price of healthy and less healthy lunch and snack items sold within Australian school canteens. A convenience sample of online canteen menus from five Australian states were selected (100 primary and 100 secondary schools). State-specific canteen guidelines were used to classify menu items into 'green' (eat most), 'amber' (select carefully) and 'red' (not recommended in schools). The price of the cheapest 'healthy' lunch (vegetable-based 'green') and snack ('green' fruit) item was compared to the cheapest 'less healthy' ('amber/red') lunch and snack item, respectively, using an un-paired t-test. The relative price of the 'healthy' items and the 'less healthy' items was calculated to determine the proportion of schools that sold the 'less healthy' item cheaper. The mean cost of the 'healthy' lunch items was greater than the 'less healthy' lunch items for both primary (AUD $0.70 greater) and secondary schools ($0.50 greater; p < 0.01). For 75% of primary and 57% of secondary schools, the selected 'less healthy' lunch item was cheaper than the 'healthy' lunch item. For 41% of primary and 48% of secondary schools, the selected 'less healthy' snack was cheaper than the 'healthy' snack. These proportions were greatest for primary schools located in more, compared to less, disadvantaged areas. The relative price of foods sold within Australian school canteens appears to favour less healthy foods. School canteen healthy food policies should consider the price of foods sold.
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Improving low fruit and vegetable intake in children: Findings from a system dynamics, community group model building study.
by Sarah Gerritsen
PLoS ONE; 8/14/2019, Vol. 14 Issue 8, p1-16, 16p

Many children globally do not meet government guidelines for daily fruit and vegetable intake, and in New Zealand, adherence to the vegetable intake recommendation is declining. This study aimed to identify systemic barriers to children meeting fruit and vegetable (FV) guidelines and generate sustainable actions within a local community to improve children’s FV intake. A qualitative system dynamics method of community group model building was used. The research team partnered with Healthy Families Waitākere, a Ministry of Health funded prevention initiative, to recruit 17 participants (including students, parents, teachers, community leaders, local retailers and health promoters) from a low-income, ethnically-diverse community in West Auckland, New Zealand. Three group model building workshops were held during which a systems map was created and used to identify actions by considering causal pathways and reinforcing loops in the system. Barriers to children’s FV intake identified by participants were the saturation of fast-food outlets in the community and ubiquitous marketing of these products, the high cost of fresh produce compared to fast food, and parents having little time for food preparation plus declining cooking skills and knowledge. Several actions to improve children’s FV intake by improving the local food environment were identified, which will be co-designed further and tested by a collaborative group involving community leaders. This project highlights the effectiveness of group model building for engaging a local community in systems change to improve child nutrition, and supplies a blueprint for future qualitative system dynamics research.
Time for structural reform in mental health: who is up for the challenge?
Australian Health Review 43(4) 361-362
Benjamin M. Nowotny, Erwin Loh C, Katherine Lorenz C and Euan M. Wallace
 
Learning from medical errors to prevent their recurrence is an important component of any healthcare system’s quality and safety improvement functions. Traditionally, this been achieved principally from review of adverse clinical outcomes. The opportunity to learn systematically and in a system manner from patient complaints and litigation has been less well harnessed. Herein we describe the pathways and processes for both patient complaints and medicolegal claims in Victoria, and Australia more broadly, and assess the potential for these to be used for system improvement. We conclude that both patient complaints and medicolegal claims could afford the potential to additionally inform and direct safety and quality improvement. At present neither patient complaints nor medicolegal claims are used systematically to improve patient safety. We identify how this may be done, particularly through sharing findings across agencies.
 
Diagnosis of dementia in Australia: a narrative review of services and models of care.
Natalie Su Quin Ng and Stephanie Alison Ward 
Australian Health Review Vol 43(4)
 
There is an impetus for the timely diagnosis of dementia to enable optimal management of patients, carers and government resources. This is of growing importance in the setting of a rising prevalence of dementia in an aging population. The Australian Clinical Practice Guidelines and Principles of Care for People with Dementia advocate referral to comprehensive memory services for dementia diagnosis, but in practice many patients may be diagnosed in other settings. The aim of the present study was to obtain evidence of the roles, effectiveness, limitations and accessibility of current settings and services available for dementia diagnosis in Australia.
This concerns a disease that is highly prevalent and escalating, and highlights the roles for practitioners in various settings including general practices, acute hospitals, specialist clinics, community and nursing homes. In particular, it discusses the potential roles, advantages and challenges of dementia diagnosis in each setting.
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The illiberalism of behavioural conditionality: a critique of Australia's 'No Jab, No Pay' Policy
KATHERINE CURCHIN
Volume 48, Issue 4 October 2019 , pp. 789-805
 
Internationally the payment of welfare benefits is increasingly being made conditional on recipients’ behaviour. Behavioural conditions and the payments to which they apply are diversifying. This article aims to contribute to the debate among scholars and policymakers over the ethics of welfare conditionality. While other assessments of the ethics of welfare conditionality have focused on the potential harm caused to vulnerable welfare recipients, this paper develops the argument that welfare conditionality is illiberal. Drawing on findings from behavioural science, it argues that relying on extrinsic motivation in the form of financial incentives is a less desirable approach to behavioural change than bolstering intrinsic motivation. The argument is illustrated with the case of the Australian ‘No Jab, No Pay’ policy, under which family payments and childcare subsidies are denied to parents whose children are not fully immunised. As behavioural conditions and the payments to which they are applied diversify, the cumulative effects of these conditions pose an underappreciated threat to citizens’ autonomy.
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Does the Ban on Trans-Fats Improve Public Health? In Search of the Optimal Policy Response.
by Mitja Kovac
Journal of Regulatory Economics, June 2019, v. 55, iss. 3, pp. 258-81

This paper examines the contribution of the regulatory ban on trans-fats and voluntary trans-fat regulation to public health outcomes for a sample of 39 countries in the period 1990-2015. To this end, we exploit within-country variation in trans-fat legislation to estimate the impact of the trans fat ban on cardiovascular mortality and obesity rates. Our difference-in-difference estimates indicate modest and beneficial effects of the trans-fats ban in reducing cardiovascular mortality and obesity rate. We find that the ban on trans fats tends to decrease the mortality rate attributed to cardiovascular diseases while the effects on the obesity rates are significant, especially among children and adolescent age group. By contrast, voluntary regulation of trans fats and demand-driven regulatory strategies are generally not associated with a marked drop in the obesity rate. By controlling for country-specific time trends, we show that the estimated mortality- and obesity-related impact of the ban is not driven by pre-existing trends, and does not affect non-cardiovascular mortality rate.
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Making (and Framing) the Connection Between Housing Affordability and Health.
by Selena E. Ortiz
American Journal of Public Health. Sep2019, Vol. 109 Issue 9, p1168-1169. 2p.

The author discusses correlations between housing affordability and public health, including the positive impact of housing assistance on the health status and psychological well-being of low-income adults.
Light me up: power and expertise in risk communication and policy-making in the e-cigarette health debates.
by Josephine Adekola
Journal of Risk Research. Oct2019, Vol. 22 Issue 10, p1294-1308. 15p. 2 Diagrams.

This paper presents a detailed account of policy-making in a contemporary risk communication arena, where strong power dynamics are at play that have hitherto lacked theoretical analysis and empirical validation. Specifically, it expands on the understanding of how public health policy decisions are made when there is a weak evidential base and where multiple interpretations, power dynamics and values are brought to bear on issues of risk and uncertainty. The aim of the paper is to understand the role that power and expertise play in shaping public health risk communication within policy-related debates. By drawing on insight from a range of literatures, the paper argues that there several interacting factors that shape how a particular narrative gains prominence within a wider set of perspectives and how the arguments and findings associated with that perspective become amplified within the context of policy choices. These findings are conceptualised into a new model – a policy evaluation risk communication (PERC) framework – and are then tested using the Electronic cigarette debate as a case study.
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Ranked Importance of Childhood Obesity Determinants: Parents’ Views across Ethnicities in New Zealand
by Marewa Glover
Nutrients, Vol 11, Iss 9, p 2145 (2019)

Māori, Pacific, Indian, and New Zealand European pre-school children’s caregivers’ views on determinants of childhood obesity are needed to inform strategies that will reduce disparities in prevalence. Nineteen focus groups were conducted to explore the relative influence of factors contributing to body weight in children. Predetermined and participant-suggested factors were ranked. Discussion data were inductively analysed. The cost of healthy foods was the highest ranked factor across all groups. Ranked similarly were ease of access to takeaways and lack of time for food preparation. Cultural factors followed by screen time induced sedentariness in children and lack of time to ensure children exercised was next. Participant-raised factors included lack of familial, social, and health promotion support, and others’ behaviour and attitudes negatively impacting what children ate. All groups rejected stereotyping that blamed culture for higher obesity rates. Compared to the Māori and NZ European groups, the Pacific Island and Indian participants spoke of losing culture, missing extended family support, and not having access to culturally appropriate nutrition education or social support and services. Public health policies need to mitigate the negative effects of economic deprivation on food insecurity. Complementary interventions that increase access to healthier meal choices more often are needed.
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Housing
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Urban and real estate economics
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on urban and real estate economics. 
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The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco†.
by Rebecca Diamond
American Economic Review; Sep2019, Vol. 109 Issue 9, p3365-3394, 30p

Using a 1994 law change, we exploit quasi-experimental variation in the assignment of rent control in San Francisco to study its impacts on tenants and landlords. Leveraging new data tracking individuals' migration, we find rent control limits renters' mobility by 20 percent and lowers displacement from San Francisco. Landlords treated by rent control reduce rental housing supplies by 15 percent by selling to owner-occupants and redeveloping buildings. Thus, while rent control prevents displacement of incumbent renters in the short run, the lost rental housing supply likely drove up market rents in the long run, ultimately undermining the goals of the law. (JEL R23, R31, R38)
OPERATION PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT OF PUBLIC RENTAL HOUSING DELIVERY BY PPPS WITH FUZZY-AHP COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION.
by Jingfeng YUAN
International Journal of Strategic Property Management. 2019, Vol. 23 Issue 5, p328-353. 26p.

As governments promote greatly the Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to develop the Public Rental Housing (PRH) projects, the effective and efficient operation performance measurement should be pivotal for ensuring the success and sustainable development of these projects. Thus, this paper investigated operation performance indicators (OPIs) and measured the performance level of PRH PPP projects by fuzzy-analytic hierarchy process (AHP) comprehensive evaluation (FACE) method. Four important aspects of PRH PPP projects related to the operation performance and an evaluation indicator system of 21 OPIs from these four aspects were developed, the weights of which were calculated by using the AHP method. Based on fuzzy mathematics and the expert evaluation method, all the OPIs were quantitatively graded according to five ranks of evaluation criteria. Membership functions, weights of OPIs, and maximum membership degree principle were utilized to establish a multi-level FACE model for operation performance measurement of PRH PPP projects. One PRH PPP project of Nanjing, Jiangsu Province in China was chosen as the case study. Evaluation results were derived from the proposed model, and they generally conform to the actual situation. This study provides an effective operation performance measurement framework for PRH PPPs projects.
Joint Building Ventures as a New Instrument for Urban Development: A Qualitative Analysis of Baugruppen in Freiburg, Germany
by Ann-Kathrin Seemann
Housing Studies, October 2019, v. 34, iss. 9, pp. 1445-64

This article reviews a special type of collaborative housing that has emerged in the German housing market in response to the growing need for urban housing and increasing focus on active and networking housing communities and stable neighbourhoods. Joint building ventures are projects in which private individuals jointly establish residential property. However, the academic literature on this issue is underdeveloped. To foster a better understanding of the topic, this article focuses specifically on detecting the strengths and weaknesses of this type of joint building venture and its contribution to a higher homeownership rate. The qualitative interview data were collected between December 2015 and March 2016 in Freiburg, Germany. The findings reveal perceived advantages in terms of supportive networks, customised solutions and potential cost savings, whereas the identified disadvantages are high financial risks, mutual dependencies and personal efforts. Practical implications and avenues for future research are derived.
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Improving Housing Conditions in the Private and Social Rented Sectors: The Homes (Fit for Human Habitation) Act 2018 - Fit for Habitation but Fit for Purpose?
by Chris Bevan
Modern Law Review. Sept, 2019, Vol. 82 Issue 5, p897, 25 p.

Abstract The Homes (Fit for Human Habitation) Act 2018 became law in December 2018 and entered into force on 20 March 2019. This article examines the key provisions of this significant piece of housing legislation which has the potential to transform the lives of those renting homes in both the private and social sectors in England. The 2018 Act, through amendment to the Landlord and Tenant Act 1985, introduces a new obligation on landlords to ensure their residential properties are fit for human habitation and, for the first time in this jurisdiction, endows tenants with new civil rights to directly enforce this implied covenant against failing landlords. This article identifies the key deficiencies within the current legal framework around fitness for human habitation and explores how far the 2018 Act meets these challenges; set against the febrile backdrop of an acute housing crisis and the Grenfell Tower tragedy. 
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How Effective Are Policy Interventions in a Spatially-Embedded International Real Estate Market?
by Kun Duan
Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, May 2019, v. 58, iss. 4, pp. 596-637

We introduce the role of 'space' in analyzing the effect of macroeconomic policy interventions on cross-country housing price movements. We build an empirically testable analytical model and test our theoretical predictions for a panel of European countries over the period 1985-2015. Our aim is to demonstrate that while macroeconomic policy exerts a significant impact on international housing markets, the magnitudes of such impacts may be overestimated in the absence of spatial frictions. To test our hypotheses, we employ a spatial dynamic panel method and quantify intra- and inter-country differences of the effects of macroeconomic policy interventions on spatially interdependent housing markets. Endogeneity issues arise in our estimation, which we ameliorate by employing the spatial Durbin model for panel data. Following this approach, we include spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal lags for the identification purpose. We show that a spatially-embedded model produces relatively smaller and correct signs for macroeconomic variables in contrast to the traditional non-spatial model. It is concluded that empirical estimates from the traditional model are consistently over-estimated. These have significant policy implications for the exact role of macroeconomic interventions in explaining housing price movements. A battery of robustness tests and evaluations of predictive performance confirm our results.
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Evidence and Actions on Mortgage Market Disparities: Research, Fair Lending Enforcement, and Consumer Protection
by Marsha J. Courchane
Housing Policy Debate, September 2019, v. 29, iss. 5, pp. 769-94

In this article, we present an overview of the research on discrimination in mortgage underwriting and pricing, the experiences of minority borrowers both prior to and during the financial crisis, and federal efforts to mitigate foreclosures during the crisis. We next discuss the history of legal cases alleging disparate treatment of minority borrowers, and recent cases alleging disparate impact in the wake of the Supreme Court's Inclusive Communities decision. Using these discussions as a background, we examine and discuss mortgage regulations issued by the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau following the financial crisis, describe recent developments in the FinTech industry and explore the implications for fair lending policy and minority borrowers more generally. Finally, we draw conclusions and make recommendations for improving the mortgage market outcomes of minority borrowers and increasing minority borrowers' access to credit.
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Does social mix reduce stigma in public housing? A comparative analysis of two housing estates in Melbourne
by Kate Raynor
In Cities January 2020 96

In Australia and many other countries of the Global North, public housing estates are being dismantled and redeveloped to create mixed-income communities. Proponents of redevelopment argue that the introduction of private housing will reduce public housing residents' experiences of stigma. In this paper, we interrogate these assumptions by identifying the degree of stigma directed at the social housing system, the characteristics of those most likely to stigmatise, the impact of proximity to public housing estates on stigmatisation and the words used to describe social housing. Our empirical strategy relies on a multi-dimensional social housing stigma scale, cross-sectional ordinary-least-square regression analysis and a qualitative analysis of respondents' association with the term public housing. We find that a higher level of stigma is correlated with private residents, older respondents, lower incomes and those that have lived in their current neighbourhoods for longer. Drawing on social contact theory, we investigate contact with public housing residents as a predictor of stigmatisation. We find that intra-group contact, positive interactions between social and private residents and proximity to Kensington Estate, a mixed-tenure development, contribute to lower stigmatisation.
Making (and Framing) the Connection Between Housing Affordability and Health.
by Selena E. Ortiz
American Journal of Public Health. Sep2019, Vol. 109 Issue 9, p1168-1169. 2p.

The author discusses correlations between housing affordability and public health, including the positive impact of housing assistance on the health status and psychological well-being of low-income adults.
Housing Liquidation and Financial Adequacy of Retirees in New Zealand
by Jelita Noviarini
Housing Studies, October 2019, v. 34, iss. 9, pp. 1543-80

This study investigates the impact of housing on financial adequacy of New Zealand retirees using the Survey of Family, Income, and Employment (SoFIE) data for the period 2002-2009. We examine the differential effect of housing liquidation options, rent imputation and asset liquidity on financial adequacy. We report evidence of financial adequacy variation across five housing liquidation options and this is influenced by rent imputation. The results show that non-homeowners are less financially adequate than homeowners. We find that Maori, renters and individuals living in multi-dwelling occupancies have much lower levels of financial adequacy. Individuals of Pakeha or Asian ethnicity, homeowners and those living alone benefit more from imputed rent derived through home ownership. Our study highlights the need for the New Zealand government to address the lack of suitable public housing, rising housing and rental prices and mandate compulsory contributory retirement savings plans.
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Damp mouldy housing and early childhood hospital admissions for acute respiratory infection: a case control study.
by Tristram Ingham
Thorax; Sep2019, Vol. 74 Issue 9, p849-857, 9p

A gap exists in the literature regarding dose-response associations of objectively assessed housing quality measures, particularly dampness and mould, with hospitalisation for acute respiratory infection (ARI) among children.Methods: A prospective, unmatched case-control study was conducted in two paediatric wards and five general practice clinics in Wellington, New Zealand, over winter/spring 2011-2013. Children aged <2 years who were hospitalised for ARI (cases), and either seen in general practice with ARI not requiring admission or for routine immunisation (controls) were included in the study. Objective housing quality was assessed by independent building assessors, with the assessors blinded to outcome status, using the Respiratory Hazard Index (RHI), a 13-item scale of household quality factors, including an 8-item damp-mould subscale. The main outcome was case-control status. Adjusted ORs (aORs) of the association of housing quality measures with case-control status were estimated, along with the population attributable risk of eliminating dampness-mould on hospitalisation for ARI among New Zealand children.Results: 188 cases and 454 controls were studied. Higher levels of RHI were associated with elevated odds of hospitalisation (OR 1.11/unit increase (95% CI 1.01 to 1.21)), which weakened after adjustment for season, housing tenure, socioeconomic status and crowding (aOR 1.04/unit increase (95% CI 0.94 to 1.15)). The damp-mould index had a significant, adjusted dose-response relationship with ARI admission (aOR 1.15/unit increase (95% CI 1.02 to 1.30)). By addressing these harmful housing exposures, the rate of admission for ARI would be reduced by 19% or 1700 fewer admissions annually.
A dose-response relationship exists between housing quality measures, particularly dampness-mould, and young children's ARI hospitalisation rates. Initiatives to improve housing quality and to reduce dampness-mould would have a large impact on ARI hospitalisation.
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Inequality / Poverty
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on inequality, unemployment and poverty. 
Click on a date on the page to see the content.
 
Government Support Programmes and Private Investments in PPP Markets
International Public Management Journal Vol 22 Issue 3 2019
 
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have become an important tool for investing in and developing public infrastructure and services. However, many developing countries have failed to attract sufficient private investment from the PPP market. 
Results showed that capital, revenue and in-kind subsidies directly provided from governments attract more private capital, while indirect supports trhough governmnet guarantee policies do not. The institutional quality of a country enhances the positive relationship between direct government support and private PPP investments. Further, risk allocation plays a mediating role between government supports and private investment.
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The Atkinson inequality measure and inequality aversion.
Creedy, John
Working paper in Public Finance 01/2-19
January 2019.
 
This paper examines the precise way in which the Atkinson inequality measures varies as inequality aversion increases. The aim is to investigate whether precise conditions can be obtained under which a tax reform might be judged to be inequality reducing for one range of aversion parameters, and inequality increasing for another range. A number of elasticities, with respect to inequality aversion, are derived and shown to have convenient interpretations. Specific conditions cannot be produced because the Atkinson measure can take the same value for a range of alternative distributions. Nevertheless, intersecting profiles of Atkinson measures plotted against inequality aversion can arise without the need for pathological assumptions about changes in the income distribution. The analysis shows the need to consider a range of aversion parameters when examining changes to the tax and transfer system. By considering only one or two values, it could be concluded incorrectly that a tax reform is progressive, when a higher degree of inequality aversion would judge a change to be regressive.
 
 
Letting the Gini out of the fuel poverty bottle? Correlating cold homes and income inequality in European Union countries
by Ray Galvin
In Energy Research & Social Science December 2019 58

Highlights •Emerging research shows economic inequality affects home energy consumption.•Energy poverty research has not considered this phenomenon on the macro-level.•I regress macro-level energy poverty data against Gini indices in EU lands.•The Gini strongly predicts percentages suffering domestic energy poverty.•This has implications for fiscal policy and social-science based energy research.
Emergence of income inequality: Origin, distribution and possible policies
by Songtao Tian
In Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 1 January 2020 537

Wealth and income inequality has attracted intensive interest in recent years due to its great significance both in reality and theory. Inspection on individual behaviors in a microscopic view would be useful in clarifying possible reasons for inequality and proper policies for reducing inequality and poverty. This paper presents an inhomogeneous agent-based model to explore the emergence of income inequality, in which individuals with varied qualities work, consume and invest. In despite of the small attribute difference for individuals, large income/wealth inequality and class differentiation naturally occur through a mechanism of capital (investment) income, which shares some analogy to the endogenous growth. The obtained income distribution is well described with an exponential law at smaller values and a power law at large values. Education, which is modeled as increasing the average productivity and decreasing the productivity width, is able to improve the equality and lower the Gini coefficient. The uplift of salary level hampers the speed of investment (industrialization) and the short-term income, but it brings long-term benefits of higher efficiency and equality. These results support the potential capacity of the model as a basic and open framework to investigate multifarious questions regarding income inequality.
Diverging trends of wage inequality in Europe
 João M R Pereira, Aurora Galego
Oxford Economic Papers, Volume 71, Issue 4, October 2019, Pages 799–823
 
Since the middle/end of the 2000s wage inequality has increased in some European countries (such as Portugal or the UK) and decreased in others (especially in Hungary and Poland). In this article, we analyse the role of the minimum wage and of workers’ and firms’ observed characteristics behind these diverging trends in wage inequality. Our findings indicate that compositional changes as regards education are a key factor pushing up inequality in the majority of the countries, but particularly in Italy and Portugal. Other factors either contribute to increased or decreased inequality, specifically minimum wage changes, the percentage of non-native employees and native wage premiums. Minimum wage changes seem to be of crucial importance in Greece, Hungary and Poland. Finally, the presence of non-natives in the labour market is a key determinant in the UK, but also to some extent in Austria and Hungary.
 
Re-estimating the relationship between inequality and growth.
 Nathalie Scholl; Stephan Klasen
Oxford Economic Papers, Volume 71, Issue 4, October 2019, Pages 824–847, 
 
In this paper, we revisit the inequality–growth relationship using an enhanced panel data set with improved inequality data. We explicitly take into account the special role of transition (post-Soviet) countries and add an instrumental variable (IV) estimation to add a causal interpretation to our findings. Our analysis is based on the specification used by Forbes in her 2000 paper, but we also address functional form concerns raised by Banerjee and Duflo three years later. We arrive at three main findings: First, the significant positive association between inequality and economic growth in the full sample is entirely driven by transition countries. Second, this relationship in transition countries is not robust to the inclusion of separate time effects. Lastly, it appears that this association is not causal but rather driven by the particular timing of the transition. Results from IV estimation confirm our interpretation of the observed positive relationship in the overall sample as non-causal.
 
Infrastructure  
 
 
A collaborative appraisal framework to evaluate transport policies for improving air quality in city centres.
by Julio A. Soria-Lara
Cities. Sep2019, Vol. 92, p112-124. 13p.

Transport policies for improving air quality are increasingly being implemented in city centres across the world. While the effectiveness of those policies is markedly affected by a strong social controversy, one missing element is the role that stakeholders engagement can play in identifying impacts and potential implementation strategies. This paper diverges from other commonly accepted approaches by allowing stakeholders evaluate a set of transport policies for improving air quality. The city of Madrid (Spain), where there is a clear intention to restrict traffic in its centre, was taken as case study. Local stakeholders were engaged in a series of semi-structure interviews and a final face-to-face workshop to evaluate the potential impacts, acceptability, and feasibility of eight transport policies. Results show two distinct viewpoints: stakeholders from public institutions and eco-mobility sectors; and stakeholders linked to retail, logistics, and car-sharing services. Consensus between those two groups was hard to achieve for three specific policies: (i) license-plate restrictions; (ii) charges to motor vehicles; and (iii) development of walking and cycling infrastructure. The paper outlines the methodological process, reflects on the usefulness of stakeholder engagement in the policy-making process, and concludes with a discussion on the acceptability of the evaluated transport policies in the local context of Madrid. • A total of eight transport policies for improving air quality are evaluated. • A collaborative approach is used based on semi-structure interviews and a face-to-face workshop. • A total of 28 key stakeholders are engaged during an ex-ante evaluation.
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Maximum Entropy: A Stochastic Frontier Approach for Electricity Distribution Regulation
by Elvira Silva
Journal of Regulatory Economics, June 2019, v. 55, iss. 3, pp. 237-57

The literature on incentive-based regulation in the electricity sector indicates that the size of this sector in a country constrains the choice of frontier methods as well as the model specification itself to measure economic efficiency of regulated firms. The aim of this study is to propose a stochastic frontier approach with maximum entropy estimation, which is designed to extract information from limited and noisy data with minimal statements on the data generation process. Stochastic frontier analysis with generalized maximum entropy and data envelopment analysis--the latter one has been widely used by national regulators--are applied to a cross-section data on thirteen European electricity distribution companies. Technical efficiency scores and rankings of the distribution companies generated by both approaches are sensitive to model specification. Nevertheless, the stochastic frontier analysis with generalized maximum entropy results indicate that technical efficiency scores have similar distributional properties and these scores as well as the rankings of the companies are not very sensitive to the prior information. In general, the same electricity distribution companies are found to be in the highest and lowest efficient groups, reflecting weak sensitivity to the prior information considered in the estimation procedure.
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The effect of infrastructure and taxation on economic growth: new empirical assessment.
by José Laurindo de Almeida
Journal of Economic Studies; 2019, Vol. 46 Issue 5, p1065-1082, 18p

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the empirical literature that analyzes the effect of the core infrastructure (telecommunication, electricity and transportation) and indirect taxation on economic growth. Design/methodology/approach: The authors present empirical evidence through panel data analysis based on a comprehensive sample of countries (96) over a long period of time (1976 to 2014). Findings: The findings confirm the assumption that the core of infrastructure is essential to promote economic growth. Furthermore, indirect taxation is not a tool capable of stimulating growth. In particular, new sectors of the core of infrastructure, such as the internet and mobile telephony, are capable of expanding the effect of infrastructure on growth. Originality/value: Based on a sample of 74 countries, we include new infrastructure sectors into the analysis (transportation, fixed telephony, mobile telephony and internet), and verify changes from the 1990s.
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Labour market
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on inequality, unemployment and poverty. 
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NEP (New Economic Papers) - Labour Markets, Supply, Demand and Wages
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on labour markets, supply, demand and wages.
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What's the Natural Rate of Unemployment? Answers from Forecasters
by Kevin W. Capehart
International Review of Applied Economics, September 2019, v. 33, iss. 5, pp. 712-32

For its panel survey of professional macroeconomic forecasters, the US Federal Reserve asks panelists whether they use the 'natural rate of unemployment' (NRU) or 'non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment' (NAIRU) in formulating their forecasts and, also, to estimate the NRU/NAIRU. This paper studies responses and non-responses to those questions in order to interrogate forecasters' views of the NRU/NAIRU. We find that most panelists in most years say they do not use the NRU/NAIRU, and they do not provide an estimate of it. Among those who do, their NRU/NAIRU estimates differ but usually do not differ significantly from the average of recent unemployment rates. We fail to find much evidence--in either their inflation and unemployment forecasts, NRU/NAIRU estimates, or revisions to those estimates over time--that panelists who use the NRU/NAIRU treat it as an unemployment rate below which inflation rises and above which inflation falls. Finally, we find that the NRU/NAIRU has no informational value for panelists who say they use it; they are no better at accurately forecasting inflation or unemployment.
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Pathway, labour market experiences, and learning at work and beyond at age 26.
Cathy Wylie and Karen Vaughan.
August 2019
 NZCER.
Cathy Wylie and Karen Vaughan
 
Summary
The Competent Learners study has followed a cohort of young New Zealanders from their final months in early childhood education to age 26. has tracked the development of a group of learners from when they were in early childhood education, through school and into adulthood. Over the years, its findings have been well used in policy and practice. The final phase of the project returned to the cohort when they were 26. Two reports from this phase are now available, with a third report coming in late 2019. 
This report describes the learning and labour market experiences of 274 young adults at age 26, and the paths they took into adulthood. These young adults were part of the Competent Learners cohort study, which has followed a group from the Wellington region since near age 5. The study’s focus was on how children’s and then young people’s experiences in and out of formal education contribute to their educational performance, and also their wellbeing.
The Competent Learners cohort typically had “well lit” paths (Patterson, 2011) to traverse in their journey from school into adulthood. The average income and qualification levels of the families in this Wellington region group were higher than the country as a whole. Most left school with at least NCEA Level 2. So how this group fared in their journey from school can tell us what that journey can look like for those for whom, in theory, it should be the most straightforward.
Pathways from school for most of the Competent Learners cohort to age 26 usually included continuing formal learning, often combined with work. Those who went from school to employment usually stayed in full-time work, though some added formal study by age 26. Those who took gap time before the age of 20 were least likely to return to formal study after age 20. Gap time after the age of 20 was common (42%), mainly to travel, but also to work: a third of the group had worked overseas by the time they were 26. A quarter who took gap time said it changed their minds about what they wanted in life.
A fifth of the cohort were studying at age 26, primarily for work or a career they could not get without (additional) qualifications, or to widen their options.
 
Regulating casual employment in Australia
Markey, Raymond and McIvor, Joseph
Journal of Industrial Relations Vol 60 Issue 5, 2019
 
The rise of precarious and non-standard working arrangements has received substantial attention in 
recent times. In Australia precarious work has been particularly associated with the phenomenon of casual work, defined as employment without the leave benefits provided by the National Employment Standards. Casual employment status is at the employers' discretion. It may be long term and involve short shifts of less than 4 hours. In the recent Modern Awards Review by the Australian Fair Work Commission, the Australian Council of Trade Unions submitted proposals to limit employers' ability to unilaterally determine the employment relationship and to reduce the degree of precariousness associated with casual employment. The Australian Council of Trade Unions sought the right for long-term casuals to convert to permanent employment and to extend minimum hours for shifts. This article surveys the evidence, primary and secondary, regarding the extent and nature of Australian casual employment, including its impact on flexibility, earnings security and productivity. In this context, we explore the implications of the Australian Council of Trade Unions claims and Fair Work Commission decision, and present data from a survey of casual employees regarding employment preferences. Whilst some employees prefer casual status, we find that many would benefit from protective regulations, and that most casuals support such regulation.
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Misallocation of talent and human capital: Political economy analysis
by Mark Gradstein
European Economic Review. Sept, 2019, Vol. 118, 148

Keywords Talent mismatch; Group bias; Human capital; Political enfranchisement Abstract Mismatches in the labor market, specifically because of underrepresentation of various population groups, carry significant economic cost. In this paper we argue, using a simple analytical model that an additional cost component is related to the effect of such underrepresentation on incentives to invest in human capital, which results in a mutual feedback relationship between the labor market and the skill acquisition market and may lead to economy's divergence. Further, it is shown that an initially advantaged group may have an incentive to minimize the bias against the disadvantaged group, and that political enfranchisement is the means to achieve a commitment to such a policy. 
Attracting women into male-dominated trades: views of young women in Australia
Struthers, Karen; Strachan, Glenda
IJRVET Vol 6 No 1 2019
 
The persistent low female participation in male-dominated trades is not attracting a high level of public attention and policy action. There are determined, yet ad hoc actions by advocates in response to evidence that economic benefits will be derived for industry and women through increased female participation in the male-dominated trades. Occupational segregation of the trades remains resistant to change.
To better understand the barriers limiting female participation in the male-dominated trades from the perspective of young women, this PhD study features interviews with female secondary students, complemented by interviews with industry stakeholders and a quantitative analysis of VET and trade participation data. The three primary research questions are: 1) What is the extent of gender segregation in vocational education and training (VET) and typically male-dominated trades in Australia, and how does this compare internationally? 2) Why do very few female students choose male-dominated trades as their job pathway? 3) What can be done, particularly in the education and training sectors, to increase female interest in, and take-up of, the male-dominated trades?;  The results of this research showed that the composition of trade-qualified females in male-dominated trades is persistently low at 2-3 per cent. The views of young women affirmed the evidence showing system-wide barriers limit female interest in these trades. Most influential is that gender stereotypes of work are set by Year 10 and that female enrolment in Maths (a pre-requisite for male-dominated careers) is low; these trades are seen as 'jobs for the boys who don't do academic,' and the fear of intimidation and harassment deters young women. Low enrolment of female students in male-dominated trade courses indicates that this entrenched occupational segregation of the trades will remain resistant to change for some time to come.
The findings indicate that ad hoc responses to overcome gender segregation of the trades is not effective. Influenced by systems theory and a social ecological model (SEM) of change, the researchers promote the need for sustained, nation-wide awareness and action involving VET and school sectors, industry, government and trade unions to attract more women into male-dominated trades.
 
 
How can robots affect wage inequality?
by Clemens Lankisch
In Economic Modelling September 2019 81:161-169

We explain the simultaneous presence of i) increasing per capita output, ii) declining real wages of low-skilled workers, and iii) a rising wage premium of higher education within a model of economic growth in the age of automation. The theoretical implications are consistent with the data for the United States since the 1970s. Thus, automation contributes towards our understanding of the driving forces of rising inequality. The immediate policy conclusion is that investments in higher education can help to soften the negative effects of automation.
How has the presence of an increasingly more global labor market softened the impact of the financial crisis 2008 for the U.K. economy?
by David Floyd
Strategic Change. Sept, 2019, Vol. 28 Issue 5, p321, 3 p.

The changing labor market and a global labor force have helped keep costs down. This has helped reduce the impact of the recent financial crisis. Technological development has also contributed to this process. Policies have been adopted to open up global labor markets. Reforms have been made to make labor markets more flexible. This article considers the main factors that have motivated workers to go abroad. It also looks at the impact of a more diverse workforce on the economy since the financial crisis. The article draws on theories of mobility, employment, and global migration reports. Evidence would suggest that providing flexibility in the labor market is one of the keys to recovery from the financial crisis. 
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Accounting for Labor Gaps
by Francois Langot
European Economic Review, September 2019, v. 118, pp. 312-47

This study explains the impact of taxes and labor market institutions on the total hours observed in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. We develop a balanced growth model with matching frictions in the labor market distinguishing between the extensive margin and intensive margin of labor supply. We show that (i) hours are more sensitive to changes in taxes, whereas employment reacts more to shifts in labor market institutions and (ii) a substitution effect exists between employment and hours. Counterfactual experiments show that if France had experienced the same trend in labor market institutions as the United States, its employment rate would have increased by 25 percentage points, whereas its number of hours worked per employee would have reduced by 1 percentage point. If France had chosen the US' paths of both taxes and labor market institutions, then its employment rate would have been larger by 20 percentage points and the number of hours worked by employees would have been larger by 3 percentage points than the current one, a situation observed before the 1970s.
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Varieties of employment subsidy design: Theory and evidence from across Europe
Axel Cronert
Volume 48, Issue 4 October 2019 , pp. 839-859
 
Employment subsidy programs have experienced considerable expansion across Europe in recent decades. To date, most studies analyzing this policy shift have assumed that these programs are largely equivalent in terms of their designs, effects, and explanations. In contrast, this article argues that employment subsidies are best understood as versatile multi-purpose tools that can be used as means to rather different distributional ends. Using Multiple Correspondence Analysis to explore novel data from hundreds of employment subsidy programs across Europe, this article develops a new typology based on two overarching trade-offs. The typology highlights that employment subsidies may be designed to counteract as well as to sustain insider/outsider divides in the labor market, and that they may be designed to tackle either structural or cyclical labor market problems. In a first empirical evaluation of the typology, programs with different designs are found to vary systematically in terms of distributional outcomes and starting conditions.
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Reserving Time for Daddy: The Consequences of Fathers' Quotas.
by Ankita Patnaik
Journal of Labor Economics. Oct2019, Vol. 37 Issue 4, p1009-1059. 51p. 11 Charts, 7 Graphs.

"Daddy quotas" that reserve some parental leave for fathers are increasingly common in developed nations, but it is unclear whether fathers respond to the binding constraints or the labeling effects they produce. Furthermore, little is known about their long-term effects on household behavior. I examine the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan, which improved compensation and reserved 5 weeks of leave for fathers. I find that fathers' participation increased by 250%, driven by higher benefits and the framing effect of labeling some weeks as "daddy only." I also present causal evidence that paternity leave reduces sex specialization long after the leave period.
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Macroeconomics
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Macroeconomics
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on macroeconomics. 
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Some International Evidence on Double-Dip Recession
by Ben L. Kyer
International Advances in Economic Research, August 2019, v. 25, iss. 3, pp. 347-62

With quarterly data on real gross domestic product for 21 nations from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, this paper investigates the relatively neglected concept of double-dip recession. For this paper, a double-dip recession is defined as a second decline of real gross domestic product (GDP) after a trough of the economic cycle but prior to the reversion point or the previous peak level of real GDP. We find that while traditional or single-dip recessions constitute the majority of the recessions found for this paper, double-dip recessions are rather common occurrences across the world. However, higher-order multi-dip recessions, with three or more declines of real GDP before the reversion point is attained, are considerably less prevalent. We also find evidence of what we term trough-deepening multi-dip recessions.
Retrospectives: Lord Keynes and Mr. Say: A Proximity of Ideas
by Alain Beraud
Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 2019, v. 33, iss. 3, pp. 228-42

Since the publication of Keynes's General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, generations of economists have been led to believe that Say was Keynes's ultimate nemesis. By means of textual and contextual analysis, we show that Keynes and Say held similar views on several key issues, such as the possibility of aggregate-demand deficiency, the role of money in the economy, and government intervention. Our conclusion is that there are enough similarities to call into question the idea that Keynes's views were antithetical to Say's. The irony is that Keynes was not aware of these similarities. Our study sheds new light on the interpretation of Keynes's work and on his criticism of classical political economy. Moreover, it suggests that some policy implications of demand-side and supply-side frameworks overlap. Finally, the study underlines the importance of a thorough analysis of the primary sources to fully grasp the substance of Say's message.
Paradox of Austerity: Multi-country Evidence
by Surajit Das
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, June 2019, v. 55, iss. 8, pp. 1681-93

This article seeks to explore whether a reduction in the government expenditure would necessarily reduce the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio or not. It has been theoretically argued that this would really depend upon the values of the government expenditure elasticity and that of the revenue buoyancy of the economies, which are, in turn, dependent upon various institutional and historical factors of the respective economies. Based on available empirical evidence from 175 countries for 15 years (from 2000 to 2014), the authors argue that a cut in the government expenditure might paradoxically lead to a higher fiscal deficit to GDP ratio for about half of the countries around the globe. This study tries to argue that an improvement in the value of fiscal multiplier and that in the tax buoyancy can be the policy alternatives to various painful austerity measures.
Is There a Role for Uncertainty in Forecasting Output Growth in OECD Countries? Evidence from a Time-Varying Parameter-Panel Vector Autoregressive Model
by Goodness C. Aye
Applied Economics, July 2019, v. 51, iss. 33, pp. 3624-31

This paper uses a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive (TVP-PVAR) model to analyze the role played by domestic and US news-based measures of uncertainty in forecasting the growth of industrial production of 12 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Based on a monthly out-of-sample period of 2009:06 to 2017:05, given an in-sample of 2003:03 to 2009:05, there are only 46% of cases where domestic uncertainty can improve the forecast of output growth relative to a baseline monetary TVP-PVAR model, which includes inflation, interest rate and nominal exchange rate growth, besides output growth. Moreover, including US uncertainty does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance of output growth from the TVP-PVAR model which includes only the domestic uncertainty along with the baseline variables. So, in general, while uncertainty is important in predicting the future path of output growth in the 12 advanced economies considered, a forecaster can do better in majority of the instances by just considering the information from standard macroeconomic variables.
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The global macroeconomic burden of road injuries: estimates and projections for 166 countries
by Simiao Chen
In The Lancet Planetary Health September 2019 3(9):e390-e398

Road injuries are among the ten leading causes of death worldwide and also impede economic wellbeing and macroeconomic performance. Beyond medical data on the incidence of road injuries and their resulting morbidity and mortality, a detailed understanding of their economic implications is a prerequisite for sound, evidence-based policy making. We aimed to determine global macroeconomic costs of road traffic injuries and their cross-country distribution.
Management / Leadership
Coaching for change: how to help employees reach their potential
by Richard Boyatzis
Harvard Business Review. Sept-Oct, 2019, Vol. 97 Issue 5, p151, 5 p.

The article presents ways in which managers can foster life-improving change in others. The emphasis is on asking questions, listening well, providing compassion, and create a caring relationship. Good coaches help individuals identify opportunities, and assess whether those individuals are ready to invest in the reflection and experimentation needed to make change happen. Coaches also establish the groundwork, having the individuals identify their ideals regarding themselves and their roles in their companies, and compare these to where they are now. Lastly, coaches keep individuals progressing towards their desired goals, testing new and different practices and behaviors, and honing those that were found to be most effective.
The power of positioning: How leadership work unfolds in team interactions.
by Viviana Meschitti
Leadership (17427150); Oct2019, Vol. 15 Issue 5, p621-643, 23p

Drawing on literature conceptualising leadership as a discursive accomplishment, this paper defines leadership as leadership work: a process unfolding through talk and depending on a unique dynamic among the resources that participants bring to an interaction and the ability of the participants to creatively mobilise these resources to perform the task at hand. Leadership work can be understood through the analysis of how individuals position themselves and others in an interaction. Data from an ethnographic study of an academic research team support our arguments. The paper contributes to the literature on leadership as a process by demonstrating that positioning is not only necessary for leadership to unfold but it also allows a more nuanced analysis of leadership work, by opening researchers' eyes to the variety of resources involved in this process.
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Individual and contextual predictors of team member proactivity: what do we know and where do we go from here?
by Sabrine El Baroudi
Human Resource Management Review. Dec2019, Vol. 29 Issue 4, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.

Contemporary organizations are placing greater emphasis on team work in order to meet the challenges of an increasingly turbulent business environment. In this context, the relationship between team member proactivity and overall team performance has been the focus of growing interest among management scholars and practitioners alike. Whereas extant scholarship acknowledges that team member proactivity is different from other forms of proactivity (i.e., individual and organization member proactivity), there is still only limited understanding of the factors that predict team member proactivity. Therefore, this paper extends current scholarship by identifying the individual and contextual predictors of team member proactivity and explaining how, taken together, they jointly influence team member proactivity. Building on these findings, the paper also identifies gaps in the current literature and proposes a model of team member proactivity to be tested in future research.
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Dispersed doesn’t have to mean disconnected.
by Nina Fountain
NZ Business + Management, 01/10/2019, Vol. 33 Issue 9, pM14-M15, 2p, 2 Color Photographs

I was recently asked by a senior executive to speak to the leaders and managers in their team about leading and working in distributed teams. Consider team meetings; it's essential to talk about project plans or strategy, to decide on an approach, to keep everyone informed or to coach the team in how to make progress. By creating opportunities for camaraderie, you not only improve team culture, but you increase motivation.
Māori/Pacifika/Indigenous
Oranga Tamariki: Where to from here?
by ANNA BRANKIN
Te Karaka: The Ngai Tahu Magazine, 01/06/2019, Issue 82, p16-19, 4p

Oranga Tamariki is now two years into a five-year plan to address shortcomings, but the organisation is struggling to earn back the trust of the communities it serves. This lack of trust is due not only to past failings, but to ongoing situations in which Oranga Tamariki has reportedly come up short.
Indigenous employment and skills strategies in Australia
OECD, 2019.
 
Innovative ways of working with Indigenous Australians are needed to improve their employment prospects, especially as many work in jobs that are most likely to be impacted by digitalisation and automation in the future. This report considers both quantitative and qualitative data regarding employment, skills, and entrepreneurship opportunities for Indigenous Australians. A number of case studies were undertaken with employment and training providers in the cities of Sydney and Perth to gain insights into the delivery of employment and skills programmes targeted to Indigenous Australians. The report highlights critical success factors to better link Indigenous Australians to high quality jobs while also providing recommendations regarding future employment and skills programming.
 
Decolonising Technological Futures: A dialogical tryptich between Te Haumoana White, Ruth Irwin, and Tegmark’s Artificial Intelligence
by Ruth Irwin
In Futures September 2019 112

Colonialism has wrought great injustices across many indigenous people at the during the modern period. Maori exercise unique negotiating skills to productively engage with the power dynamics of colonialism and modernity. This dialogue between Te Haumoana White and Ruth Irwin illuminates the ongoing pressures of modernity and colonialism, unique Maori approaches to ownership, and a deep understanding of power and politics. This dialogue traces historic injustice and contemporary innovations that seek to resuscitate the landscape and the community in, through, and around modern legal and technological onto-epistemologies. At the cutting edge of contemporary technology, AI is using algorithms to aggregate and sift political communities online. Te Haumoana White’s insights on land, environment, people and law are reflected on the AI tendency to advocate for the manipulation of popular opinion in the aggregation of AI algorithms. The computer science community who advocate AI seem to have little understanding of political theory, political economics outside the tired and outdated neoliberal paradigm, nor how voice constitutes politics. Thus, Tegmark and others in the AI genre, tend to advocate a ‘benign dictatorship’ model, based on a combination of neoliberalism and algorithms that are vulnerable to exacerbation and manipulation of popularist trends.
Consolidated criteria for strengthening reporting of health research involving indigenous peoples: the CONSIDER statement
by Tania Huria
BMC Medical Research Methodology. August 9, 2019, Vol. 19 Issue 1

Tania Huria[sup.1], Suetonia C. Palmer[sup.2], Suzanne Pitama[sup.1], Lutz Beckert[sup.2], Cameron Lacey[sup.1], Shaun Ewen[sup.3] and Linda Tuhiwai Smith[sup.4]
 
Research reporting guidelines are increasingly commonplace and shown to improve the quality of published health research and health outcomes. Despite severe health inequities among Indigenous Peoples and the potential for research to address the causes, there is an extended legacy of health research exploiting Indigenous Peoples. This paper describes the development of the CONSolIDated critERtia for strengthening the reporting of health research involving Indigenous Peoples (CONSIDER) statement.
A list of 88 possible checklist items was generated, reconciled, and categorized. Eight research domains and 17 criteria for the reporting of research involving Indigenous Peoples were identified. The research reporting domains were: (i) governance; (ii) relationships; (iii) prioritization; (iv) methodologies; (v) participation; (vi) capacity; (vii) analysis and findings; and (viii) dissemination.
The CONSIDER statement is a collaborative synthesis and prioritization of national and international research statements and guidelines.
A Kaupapa Māori, culturally progressive, narrative review of literature on sport, ethnicity and inclusion.
by Jeremy Hapeta
Kotuitui: New Zealand Journal of Social Sciences; Nov2019, Vol. 14 Issue 2, p209-229, 21p

This Kaupapa Māori narrative review identifies themes in literature concerning sport, ethnicity and inclusion, from an indigenous 'culturally progressive' perspective. Scholars suggest that sport influences national identity and in Aotearoa/New Zealand, rugby is a rich site for examining such connections. Inclusiveness within sport is an expressed desire, although the academic scrutiny on this is limited. This study identifies and examines themes within literature (2008–2017), using a 'Ngā Poutama Whetū' culturally progressive review process, contributing nuanced understandings from the content. Results suggest that racist othering, representations and practices of ethnic minority exclusion are a reality in sport, although, locally, at least, the 'cultural climate' in sport strives for greater ethnic inclusivity. Conclusions suggest that current research in this domain is largely theoretical, insofar as challenges to organisations, power and privilege. However, future research should explore participants' lived experiences at the intersections of ethnicity and inclusion in sport.
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Te Ara Waiora a Tāne: a kaupapa Māori mental-health assessment and intervention planning approach.
by Allister Bush
Australasian Psychiatry, 01/08/2019, Vol. 27 Issue 4, p337-340, 4p

The aims of this paper are to describe a Māori approach to assessment and intervention planning using the Māori creation narrative Te Ara a Tāne (The Journey of Tāne) and to outline an evaluation one year after the model was implemented.Conclusions: Te Ara Waiora a Tāne is a kaupapa Māori (Māori-centred) mental-health engagement, assessment, goal setting and planning approach designed to enhance the mana (spiritual and personal authority) of whānau (individuals and family/families) at the point they enter a Māori service and during ongoing mental-health work. Preliminary evaluation indicated that staff considered the model user-friendly and helpful for whānau. Further evaluation is needed to assess the impact of this approach on Māori whānau engagement with services.
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Political entrepreneurship in the field of Māori sovereignty in Aotearoa New Zealand.
by Thomas O'Brien
British Journal of Sociology; Sep2019, Vol. 70 Issue 4, p1179-1197, 19p, 1 Chart

Individual actors have the potential to shape political outcomes through creative use of opportunities. Political entrepreneurship identifies how such actors recognize and exploit opportunities, for personal or collective gain. The existing literature focuses on individuals operating within institutional settings, with less attention paid to other types of actors. In this article, I argue for an expansion of the political entrepreneurship framework, by considering individuals in the electoral and protest arenas. An examination of the field of Māori sovereignty, or tino rangatiratanga, in Aotearoa New Zealand allows exploration of prominent actors' innovative strategies and practices. The findings highlight the actors' reliance on identity in mobilizing support within the community, to press claims. Broadening the application of political entrepreneurship demonstrates the roles of social, cultural and political capital in influencing outcomes, by identifying opportunities available to individuals embedded in the community and according to the context of the arena.
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Maori Self‐Determination: Towards Differentiated Liberal Citizenship.
by Dominic O'Sullivan
Australian Journal of Politics & History, 01/06/2019, Vol. 65 Issue 2, p230-245, 16p

During the 1980s and 1990s biculturalism was the ascendant political philosophy for managing the relationship between the New Zealand Crown and the indigenous Maori population. Biculturalism understood Maori politics as a partnership between Maori and the state, grounded in the Treaty of Waitangi, the agreement signed in 1840 from which British government was established. Biculturalism was presented as morally superior to multiculturalism which was understood as setting aside Maori Treaty rights and rights of prior occupancy in favour of less substantive rights available to Maori as one of many ethnic minorities. However, a deeper reading of multicultural political theory provides an instructive critique of biculturalism's inherent limits from the perspective of the Maori right to self‐determination. It shows why biculturalism's influence waned. It also shows why Matike Mai o Aotearoa, a blueprint for constitutional transformation commissioned by tribal leaders is unlikely to succeed as a contemporary attempt to reassert biculturalism's influence. Multicultural theory is not a panacea for the right to self‐determination, but it does not restrict the development of a broader Maori‐centred differentiated liberal citizenship in the ways that biculturalism precludes.
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Exploration of Māori household experiences of food insecurity.
by Brittani S. Beavis
Nutrition & Dietetics, 01/07/2019, Vol. 76 Issue 3, p344-352, 9p, 1 Chart

Researchers explored how food insecurity was experienced in Māori households and how this can affect hauora (well‐being). Methods: This Māori‐centred research was conducted in New Zealand by Māori dietetic students with Māori supervision. Kaupapa Māori methodology guided the inductive thematic analysis of observational and discussion data (40+ hours per household) from four Māori households (18 individuals) that participated in a 3‐month ethnographic‐style investigation in 2011. Results: Four themes were identified. 'Overcoming socioeconomic hardship' was most clearly observed within the low‐income whānau (family), however, all whānau had experienced food insecurity. This experience had short‐ and long‐term impacts on well‐being. Other themes identified strategies whānau developed to reduce the severity of food insecurity: sharing food, gardening food, and teaching food and nutrition skills. Selected text for themes revealed expressed Māori values and/or hauora influences. The values of manaakitanga (sharing food/hospitality), whānaungatanga (family relationships) and kaitiakitanga (caring for the environment) were observed and analysed deductively. Conclusions: All households had experienced income‐related food insecurity, and its short‐ and long‐term impacts on well‐being were observed. Whānau had developed many strategies to reduce the severity of food insecurity, relying on support from extended whānau and the wider community, but households remained food insecure. Health and other professionals should advocate for social justice and policy solutions that change systems perpetuating social and health inequity. All households need sufficient income to afford basic needs including food. When basic needs are met, households and individuals can thrive and make meaningful contributions to society.
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Migration
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Economics of human migration
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, economics of human migration.
Click on a date on the page to see the content.
 
 
Immigrants' Wage Growth and Selective Out-Migration
by Govert E. Bijwaard
Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics. Oct 2019, Vol. 81 Issue 5, p1065, 30 p.

Abstract This paper examines immigrant wage growth taking selective out-migration into account using administrative data from the Netherlands. Addressing a limitation in the previous literature, we address the potential endogeneity of immigrants' labour supply and out-migration decisions on their earning profiles using a correlated competing risk model. We distinguish between labour and family migrants, given their different labour market and out-migration behaviours. Our findings show that accounting for selective labour supply is as important as accounting for selective out-migration. Controlling only for out-migration selectivity would underestimate immigrants' wage growth, whilst controlling only for labour market selectivity would overestimate their wage growth. This shows that different selections are important for different types of migrants. 
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Unlocking the potential of migrants
Cross-country analysis.
OECD, 2019.
 
Among the millions of asylum seekers who recently arrived in OECD countries, the majority are young people who may be able to take advantage of vocational education and training (VET) opportunities to help them enter skilled employment. This report provides advice to governments and other stakeholders who are seeking to use VET to promote integration, in particular for young humanitarian migrants. While the study draws particularly on policy and practice observed in Germany, Italy, Sweden and Switzerland, it also highlights other international practices.
The report focuses on the main channels through which migrants succeed in VET. It is essential that migrants are fully informed about the opportunities VET provision offers and that they have access to high quality preparatory programmes enabling access to upper-secondary VET. Once in such provision, targeted support should help them to complete VET programmes successfully. OECD countries are putting in place innovative measures to achieve better outcomes for both migrants and for economies as a whole. Ultimately this report argues that VET systems can become stronger, more flexible and more inclusive, when working better for all students, including those with diverse and vulnerable backgrounds.
 
A spatio-temporal analysis of migration
by Alice Milivinti
Empirical Economics. Oct 2019, Vol. 57 Issue 4, p1411, 32 p.

Migration is a space- and time-dependent phenomenon. Traditional geographical migration models have considered the distance between source and destination countries or have applied suitable normalizations to treat the correlation among migratory flows. To disentangle cross-sectional dependence, spatial correlation is explored in mainly two directions. First, migratory flows from 'neighbouring' countries are considered to be directly interconnected. Second, a set for exogenous drivers are allowed to be correlated among the different economic units. Swiss immigration, from 153 source countries from 1981 to 2011, is modelled using a dynamic spatial econometric model able to capture both path-dependency and spatial interactions. An out-of-sample forecasting, performed to assess the model's accuracy, confirms the crucial role played by the spatial terms over the dynamic ones.
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Natural Resources
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Agricultural Economics
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on agricultural economics.
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NEP (New Economic Papers) - Energy Economics
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on energy economics. 
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NEP (New Economic Papers) - Environmental Economics
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on environmental economics.
Click on a date on the page to see the content.
 
Weighing cows and coal: Optimal taxes and methane and carbon from a tipping risk
Anthony Wiskich
Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU.
 
Different optimal tax paths for short-lived methane and long-lived carbon arise in a cost-benefit framework with an unknown temperature threshold where severe and irreversible climate impacts, called a tipping point, occurs. Tax paths are compared with a cost minimising approach where an upper-temperature limit is set. In both approaches, the weight (ratio) of methane to carbon taxes converge to the same value by the end of the peak temperature stabilisation period. Numerical results from the cost-benefit framework suggest: the optimal weight is close to the current United Nations policy of a 100-year Global Warming Potential; and the time-frame should decrease to align with the expected end of peak temperature. 
 
Global gas security review 2019
International Energy Agency.
2019
 
Global natural gas demand is growing strongly, supported by abundant and diversified sources of supply. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains a key enabler of international trade development with double-digit growth three years in a row, and with future growth potential supported by another wave of investment decisions in LNG export facilities throughout the world.
Much of the growth in LNG consumption is occurring in countries where LNG competes with other sources of natural gas and fuels, meaning LNG importers want more flexibility. The development of LNG spot trading, the growing share of destination-free supply contracts, and the rise of portfolio players as key buyers are all signs that the LNG market is responding to these increasing demands.
The International Energy Agency’s fourth edition of the Global Gas Security Review provides a detailed overview of these recent global market trends as well as specific regional analyses for major importing markets.
This year’s report focuses on three topics. It first provides an update on LNG market flexibility metrics based on a detailed assessment of recent contractual activity. It analyses the evolution of flexibility in LNG supply procured by traditional Asian buyers for their domestic markets, and how this flexibility could contribute to improving security of supply for fast-growing markets elsewhere in Asia. Finally, this year’s report includes a focus on north-western Europe’s gas security challenges as a major source of domestic supply (the Groningen field in the Netherlands) is phased out.
 
Waste management and the circular economy in selected OECD countries.
Evidence from environmental performance reviews.
OECD, 2019.
 
This report provides a cross-country review of waste, materials management and circular economy policies in selected OECD countries, drawing on OECD’s Environmental Performance Reviews during the period 2010-17. It presents the main achievements in the countries reviewed, along with common trends and policy challenges, and provides insights into the effectiveness and efficiency of waste, materials management and circular economy policy frameworks. As the selected reviews were published over a seven-year period, information for some countries may be more recent than for others. Nevertheless, the policy recommendations emerging from the reviews may provide useful lessons for other OECD countries and partner economies.
 
Accellerating Climate Action
Refocusing policies through a well-being lens.
OECD, 2019
 
This report builds on the OECD Well-being Framework and applies a new perspective that analyses synergies and trade-offs between climate change mitigation and broader goals such as health, education, jobs, as well as wider environmental quality and the resources needed to sustain our livelihoods through time. This report takes an explicitly political economy approach to the low-emissions transitions needed across five economic sectors (electricity, heavy industry, residential, surface transport, and agriculture) that are responsible for more than 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Synergies between emissions reduction and broader well-being objectives, such as reduced air pollution and improved health, increase the incentives for early mitigation action. At the same time, the impact of climate policies on issues such as the affordability of energy and jobs need to be taken into account to counter growing economic and social inequalities within and between countries. The report argues that reframing climate policies using a well-being lens is necessary for making visible such synergies and trade-offs; allowing decision-makers to increase the former and anticipate, manage and minimise the latter. This requires us to rethink societal goals in terms of well-being, reframe our measures of progress and refocus policy-making accordingly.
The full publication will be available in early 2020.
 
Cooling on the move
The future of air conditioning in vehicles.
OECD, 2019.
 
Air conditioners in passenger cars, vans, buses and freight trucks – collectively known as mobile air conditioning – consume large amounts of energy. The fuel they use and their leaks of refrigerant are also responsible for a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions.
This report explores the current global energy consumption from mobile air conditioning systems, along with the resulting greenhouse gas emissions from the energy consumption and the leaking refrigerants. With no further policy action, energy use from mobile air conditioning may almost triple to over 5.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2050. At the same time, annual combined emissions from energy consumption and refrigerant leakage could more than triple to 1 300 million tons of CO2 equivalent.
The report provides a summary review of the technical opportunities for improving the efficiency of mobile air conditioning. This is complemented with a review of the different types of alternative cooling refrigerants, and their potential impact on global warming. These two analyses are combined to develop a scenario of high efficiency and low global warming potential. The report’s analysis is based on a study of the literature and makes use of the IEA’s Mobility Model, which provides insights into the current and expected future stock of road vehicles.
Finally, the report explores the role government policy can play in supporting the development and installation of more efficient mobile air conditioning systems.
 
Putting CO2 to use.
Creating value from emissions.
International Energy Agency.
 
New opportunities to use carbon dioxide (CO2) in the development of products and services are capturing the attention of governments, industry and the investment community. Climate change mitigation is the primary driver for this increased interest, but other factors include technology leadership and supporting a circular economy. This analysis considers the near-term market potential for five key categories of CO2-derived products and services: fuels, chemicals, building materials from minerals, building materials from waste, and CO2 use to enhance the yields of biological processes.
While some technologies are still at an early stage of development, all five categories could individually be scaled-up to a market size of at least 10 MtCO2/yr – almost as much as the current CO2 demand for food and beverages – but most face commercial and regulatory barriers. CO2 use can support climate goals where the application is scalable, uses low-carbon energy and displaces a product with higher life-cycle emissions. Some CO2-derived products also involve permanent carbon retention, in particular building materials. A better understanding and improved methodology to quantify the life-cycle climate benefits of CO2 use applications are needed.
The market for CO2 use is expected to remain relatively small in the short term, but early opportunities could be developed, especially those related to building materials. Public procurement of low-carbon products can help to create an early market for CO2-derived products and assist in the development of technical standards. In the long term, CO2 sourced from biomass or the air could play a key role in a net-zero CO2 emission economy, including as a carbon source for aviation fuels and chemicals.
 
Key world energy statistics 2019
International Energy Agency.
2019
 
2019 marks the 22nd edition of Key World Energy Statistics (KWES) – the annual booklet of the IEA’s most used statistics.
Key World Energy Statistics contains timely, clearly presented data on the supply, transformation and consumption of all major energy sources for the main regions of the world in addition to energy indicators, energy balances, prices, RDD and CO2 emissions as well as energy forecasts.
 
 
Transparency of the organization and activity of carbon funds.
by Klaudia Jarno
Public Money & Management. Sep2019, Vol. 39 Issue 6, p436-442. 7p.

Public and mixed carbon funds buy carbon credits on behalf of public authorities and make use of public money, thus there is a need for clear information regarding their operations. The paper presents a new transparency index for the organization and activity of carbon funds that takes account of information disclosed via the internet. The construction of the index is based on the Linaburg-Maduell Transparency Index for sovereign wealth funds. The empirical study demonstrates that public and mixed carbon funds varied significantly in terms of their transparency but, in general, mixed carbon funds performed slightly better than public carbon funds.
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Innovation, productivity and sustainability in food and agriculture
Main findings from country reviews and policy lessons.
OECD, 2019
 
Markets that function well within a stable regulatory and policy environment are key to improving the productivity and sustainability of the food and agriculture sector. This report contains the main findings and policy lessons gained from a series of wide-ranging country reviews on how government policies can improve sectoral productivity and sustainability through their impact on innovation, structural change, natural resource use, and climate change. Improving the policy environment would require rolling back those policies that distort markets the most and retain farmers in uncompetitive and low-income activities, harm the environment, stifle innovation, slow structural and generational change, and weaken resilience.
Agriculture policy should focus instead on measures that facilitate the uptake of technologies and practices that use resources more efficiently and sustainably, and which contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Of equal importance are: a more collaborative approach, more effective governance systems, the development of long-term strategies, strengthened linkages between national and international actors, and comprehensive and coherent evaluation procedures. Public funding of food and agricultural research is also crucial, and private efforts need to be strengthened, including through public-private partnerships. Finally, improving overall policy coherence would contribute to building trust, and to increasing policy effectiveness at each step of the food and agriculture chain.
 
Managing forests for the greater good: The role of the social license to operate.
by Sen Wang
Forest Policy & Economics. Oct2019, Vol. 107, p101920-101920. 1p.

With steadily rising affluence levels within a jurisdiction and across the globe, forests are expected to play an increasing role in satisfying human needs for ecosystem services as well as recreational, cultural and spiritual demands. Companies that manage forests to provide goods and services are expected to satisfy the social license to operate as well as market-driven supply and demand conditions. The social license to operate has evolved to reflect shifting societal values, orientations of the regulatory regimes and the interplays of various forces mediating the diverse interests of stakeholders. The social license to operate is predicated to encompass society's growing desire of managing forests for the greater good. Examples from North American context suggest that forest companies have embraced their corporate social responsibility and made a conscious effort to implement the social license to operate. Forest management regimes have a tendency of unfolding within a nested system that resembles Russian nesting dolls of Matrioshka. The strength of the social license to operate serves as an important indicator for predicting the extent to which enterprises are able to meet a spectrum of stratified, compartmentalized, yet interconnected, management objectives. Forest companies, public agencies and resource professionals will benefit from a better understanding of contextualized social license to operate, which is subject to change on account of community consent, citizen endorsement and society-wide support. However, managing forests for the greater good will remain a lofty goal, which serves as foresters' North Star on their journey toward sustainable forest management. • Social license to operate (SLO) has gained popularity in forestry in recent years. • SLO is tiered and nested in nature, with progressively expanding dimensions. • SLO may be examined by using a Matrioshka model with five concentric circles. • To implement SLO, companies seek to meet objectives of growing societal significance. • Managing forests for the greater good is a challenging goal, albeit a lofty one.
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Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis.
by Claudio Morana
Economic Modelling. Sep2019, Vol. 81, p274-294. 21p.

Since their introduction in the mid-1990s, the return per unit of risk or multiple on catastrophe (cat) bonds has steadily declined. This paper investigates whether this pattern is consistent with the historical evolution of natural disaster risk, using average multiple figures over the period 1997–2017. Assessing the accuracy of cat bond pricing is important, since about 50% of outstanding risk capital in the cat bonds market is currently exposed to Atlantic hurricanes -a risk that global warming, among other disruptions, is found to enhance- and pension and mutual funds in European and other OECD countries currently own about 30% of the market. In this respect, while our findings suggest that falling multiples are primarily related to the Fed's expansionary monetary stance and to portfolio shift effects, we do also find evidence of significant undervaluation of global warming risk in the cat bonds market. This finding, also in light of the unfailing appetite of institutional investors for such securities, casts doubts over the sanity of the market and over cat bonds as suitable investment products for risk averse investors. Sounder investment opportunities might be found in the green bonds market, which allows for the funding of immediate investment in climate change mitigation too. • We investigate the global warming evidence and implications for disasters risk. • We find that radiative forcing drives the trend in temperatures anomalies. • It also accounts for enhanced effects of ENSO and Atlantic hurricanes. • We then investigate the implications of global warming for cat bonds pricing. • Predictive regressions point to undervaluation of risk in the cat bonds market.
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Asymmetries and Climate Futures: Working with Waters in an Indigenous Australian Settlement.
by Michaela Spencer
Science, Technology & Human Values. Sep2019, Vol. 44 Issue 5, p786-813. 28p.

This paper focuses on a water management project in the remote Aboriginal community of Milingimbi, Northern Australia. Drawing on materials and experiences from two distinct stages of this project, we revisit a policy report and engage in ethnographic storytelling in order to highlight a series of sensing practices associated with water management. In the former, a working symmetry between Yolngu and Western water knowledges is actively sought through the practices of the project. However, in the latter, recurrent asymmetries in the research work continue to appear: a bilingual diagram of water usage is displayed but produces confusion; measuring a water hole for salinity, a member of the scientific team throws in a water meter, while a Yolngu elder prefers the telling of an ancestral story; a collaborative 3-D mapping exercise invites participation from community members but struggles to develop an outcome that differs from existing maps used by scientists and government staff. Focusing on these moments as subtle points of rupture, we suggest that attending to "seeing," "telling," and "mapping" in both stages of this water management project offers a way to explore the political work of crafting climate futures and beginning to interrogate differing means for "doing difference" within them.
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Policy-Making
How do different sources of policy analysis affect policy preferences? Experimental evidence from the United States.
by Grant D. Jacobsen
Policy Sciences. Sep2019, Vol. 52 Issue 3, p315-342. 28p. 9 Charts, 1 Graph.

Analysis of policy options is often unavailable or only available from non-governmental research organizations ("think tanks") that may have explicit or implicit political biases. This paper experimentally examines how voters respond to policy analysis and how the response varies when the analysis is produced by a nonpartisan organization versus a liberal or conservative organization. The key result is that individuals, on average, are responsive to all types of analysis, but most strongly responsive to analysis produced by nonpartisan organizations. Analysis from an ideologically slanted organization is less effective because individuals tend to ignore analysis that is produced by a partisan organization that does not share their own ideology. The results suggest that increasing the amount of information that the public receives based on nonpartisan analysis may increase the diffusion of information on policy features into the public and reduce polarization in public opinion.
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What Gets Measured, Gets Done: Understanding and Addressing Middle‐Class Challenges.
by Todd L. Ely
Public Administration Review. Sep/Oct2019, Vol. 79 Issue 5, p768-771. 4p.

Middle‐class families face a range of challenges, including uneven income growth, imposing child care costs, and affordability gaps for higher education. The ideal policies by which policy makers and public administrators can aid the middle class are far from obvious. Policy solutions are likely to mirror our government and population, meaning that they will be decentralized and varied. Achieving a "growing and thriving middle class" requires understanding the composition of the middle class across the country. Benchmarking and measuring the middle‐class condition at the state and substate levels is critical to crafting and adopting effective policy solutions. This Viewpoint essay highlights the Colorado context to demonstrate the measurement of the middle class and tracking of its lived experiences.
Unlocking Data to Improve Public Policy.
by JUSTINE S. HASTINGS
Communications of the ACM. Oct2019, Vol. 62 Issue 10, p48-53. 6p. 1 Color Photograph, 1 Diagram.

The article discusses the use of fact-based policymaking, the practice of using data and research to guide policy decisions, to improve public policy and help make government programs more effective and efficient. Topics include the importance of understanding the quality of administrative data and challenges associated with the integration, transformation and optimization of administrative data for policy insight, and the use of an integrated database of administrative records.
Deliberative policy analysis: towards a methodological orientation.
by Ya Li
Policy Studies. Sep2019, Vol. 40 Issue 5, p437-455. 19p. 1 Diagram.

Deliberative policy analysis (DPA) has become a new branch of post-positivist policy inquiry since the release of a book edited by Hajer and Wagenaar fifteen years ago. The status quo of this field, however, is not satisfactory. Particularly, there is apparent shortage of exploration on how to apply DPA to generate insights for policy making. This article undertakes a critical revisit of DPA's development and to explore the road ahead, especially through the lens of practice. It starts with a brief review of DPA study, mainly focusing on its characteristics, suitable context, and functions. The next section discusses three challenges facing the emerging field: how to render the DPA approach more operable, the absence of "analysis," and the lack of purposeful and designed pilot practice. It proceeds to argue that the research on DPA will likely take a methodological turn, and offers several considerations for future study: understanding and framing DPA from a practice-oriented perspective, underscoring the importance of DPA's consulting function, taking a procedural perspective and incorporating consensus building into the process, providing organizational solutions for practicing DPA, and conducting purposeful pilot practices with prior DPA design.
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Leveraging Administrative Data to Better Serve Children and Families.
by Robert L. Fischer
Public Administration Review. Sep/Oct2019, Vol. 79 Issue 5, p675-683. 9p. 1 Diagram, 1 Chart.

The challenge of complex social issues drives the need for data systems that can connect information across multiple service delivery systems. Integrated data systems provide significant value for needs assessment, program planning, policy decision making, and collective impact evaluation across a range of social issues. This case study describes a mature county‐based integrated data system. The case study has three aims: (1) to highlight the value of integrated data systems to research, (2) to outline common challenges that such initiatives face, and (3) to present several ongoing considerations for the field that could inform policy recommendations to facilitate the use of integrated data. The authors present examples from the experience of developing this integrated data system, including involvement in the design and evaluation of the first county‐level social impact bond. The case study highlights the benefits and limitations of integrated data use in research and the potential to advance evidence‐based social decision making.
Public Sector Management 
Employee voluntary and involuntary turnover and organizational performance: Revisiting the hypothesis from classical public administration.
Seung-Ho An
International Public Management Journal Vol 22, Issue 3.
 
This article examines the effects of voluntary, involuntary, and absolute turnover rates on organizational performance. Adopting human capital and cost-benefit theories, this article posits that voluntary and involuntary turnover would have a linear negative and an inverted U-shaped relationship with organizational performance, respectively, and that an absolute turnover measure can prevent us from revealing the distinct effects of different types of turnover. Using four years of data from Florida school districts, primary findings suggest that involuntary turnover has an inverted U-shaped relationship with organizational performance, first positive and then negative, while the relationship between voluntary turnover and organizational performance remains inconclusive. The findings also suggest that absolute turnover rates can mask the complex and dissimilar impact that various types of turnover have on organizational performance.
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Innovation in financial governance reforms: for better or for worse?
Enrico Guarini, Anna Francesca Pattaro.
International Public Management Review Vol 19 No 1, 2019
 
The global financial crisis has put public budgets throughout the European Union under severe pressure. Government responses to the financial crisis have mainly focused on cutbacks to balance the budget. In this paper, we focus on a specific case of innovation in financial governance in Italy that aimed to minimize the severe effects of financial constraints on local government, while managing deficit control goals at the central level. The regulatory innovation consisted in a system of agreements between levels of government based on the ability to exchange fiscal deficit permits. While this system keeps the aggregate government-wide deficit unchanged, it allows individual local governments to deviate from their initial fiscal balance targets by obtaining deficit permits from governments that have a surplus. 
This paper critically analyzes this innovation from three perspectives: the governance model inherent to this mechanism, the new financial management practices emerging at the local level, and the effectiveness of the mechanism with regard to declared goals and objectives. Findings from this study show that a critical element limiting innovation in fiscal governance seems to be connected to the simplistic observation that the overall budgetary position of the country’s government results from the algebraic sum of all individual government bodies’ financial results. At the core of this understanding are collateral effects that occur when local priorities are distorted by the need to achieve detached fiscal targets set in a top-down manner by the central government, as exemplified by the unexpected investment crunch in Italy induced by fiscal targets calculated on a mixed accrual-cash basis.
 
The potential impacts of digital technologies on co-production and co-creation.
by Veiko Lember
Public Management Review. Nov2019, Vol. 21 Issue 11, p1665-1686. 22p. 1 Chart.

Despite growing interest in the potential of digital technologies to enhance co-production and co-creation in public services, there is a lack of hard evidence on their actual impact. Conceptual fuzziness and tech-optimism stand in the way of collecting such evidence. The article suggests an analytical framework that distinguishes between the impacts of different technologies on different elements of co-production and co-creation, and illustrates this in three different areas. It argues that there is no reason to assume that digital technologies will always encourage co-production or co-creation. In fact, they can also be used to bypass interaction with citizens.
Stakeholder salience in public sector value co-creation.
by Bernadette Best
Public Management Review. Nov2019, Vol. 21 Issue 11, p1707-1732. 26p. 1 Diagram, 1 Chart.

This paper examines key determinants of stakeholder salience and how this impacts value co-creation at different stages and levels of a service context within a consortium of UK non-government inter-sectoral organizations delivering public services. It uses three empirical stages to illustrate how value is conceptualized by different stakeholders at different stages of a service context. It then examines how stakeholder identities, and attributes of stakeholder salience and behaviour impact value co-creation across a network of stakeholders resulting in value gains and/or challenges at different levels. Finally, it offers approaches enabling greater value, through the effective management of stakeholder salience.
From marketing to public value: towards a theory of public service ecosystems.
by Maria Petrescu
Public Management Review. Nov2019, Vol. 21 Issue 11, p1733-1752. 20p. 2 Diagrams, 5 Charts.

This paper applies a service ecosystems perspective on the public service logic to evaluate the benefits and challenges this view brings to the management of public services. First, the article clarifies the concepts of private and public value, as well as co-production and co-creation. Second, the article presents an overview of the service-dominant logic, public service-dominant logic, and public service logic. Third, the paper analyses the potential of merging public service logic with a service ecosystems framework in a technology-based context, cross-fertilising public management and marketing research. This can lead to the development of a theory of public service ecosystems.
Following the yellow brick road? (Dis)enchantment with co-design, co-production and value co-creation in public services.
by Adina Dudau
Public Management Review. Nov2019, Vol. 21 Issue 11, p1577-1594. 18p. 1 Diagram, 3 Charts.

An introduction to articles in the issue is presented on topics including the state of the art in the literature unravelling issues that are problematic, their distinct contributions to the extant literature, and locus and focus of future research on co-design, co-production, and value co-creation in public services.
Factors influencing citizens' co-production of environmental outcomes: a multi-level analysis.
by José M. Alonso
Public Management Review. Nov2019, Vol. 21 Issue 11, p1620-1645. 26p. 4 Charts, 5 Graphs, 1 Map.

Drawing on the literature on public service co-production, we examine the individual-level and local government-level factors associated with pro-environmental behaviours. Statistical analysis suggests that individuals that have high levels of self-efficacy, are more civically engaged or are carers, are more likely to 'co-produce' environmental outcomes. In addition, women, rural-dwellers, university graduates and middle-aged individuals exhibit more pro-environmental behaviours. Further analysis suggests that environmental co-production is more prevalent in areas with a high degree of compatibility between local public services and citizens, but worse recycling services and less overall investment in environmental services.
Co-design: from expert- to user-driven ideas in public service design.
by Jakob Trischler
Public Management Review. Nov2019, Vol. 21 Issue 11, p1595-1619. 25p. 2 Diagrams, 2 Charts.

While co-design with users has evolved as a promising approach to service innovation, it remains unclear how it can be used in public service contexts. This article addresses this knowledge gap by applying a co-design framework during the ideation stage of six public service design projects. The findings provide insights into (a) recruiting and sensitizing suitable service users, (b) conditions enabling users to co-design ideas, and (c) requirements for implementation of user-driven ideas. The article contributes an approach that shifts public service design away from an expert-driven process towards enabling users as active and equal idea contributors.
Regulation
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Regulation
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on regulation. 
Click on a date on the page to see the content.
 
The growth-maximizing level of regulation: Evidence from a panel of international data
by Jac C. Heckelman
In European Journal of Political Economy September 2019 59:354-368

Existing evidence suggests that regulation diminishes economic growth. In theory, however, regulation may be either growth-enhancing or diminishing. We therefore empirically revisit the relation between regulation and growth, allowing for both positive and negative effects. In an unbalanced panel of 132 countries over eight time periods, we find evidence of a hump-shape relation between regulation and growth. The estimates imply that for more than 95% of the sample the total effect of regulation on growth is positive. The estimates also imply that about 60% of the sample observations are associated with over-regulation, relative to the growth-maximizing level. Similar findings apply to the (majority) subsample of non-OECD nations in the dataset. However, for the (minority) subsample of OECD nations, both the total and marginal effects of regulation on growth are negative.
The efficiency of regulatory arbitrage.
by Vlad Tarko
Public Choice. Oct2019, Vol. 181 Issue 1/2, p141-166. 26p. 4 Charts, 2 Graphs.

Classic public choice skepticism about the regulatory state, based on theories of rent-seeking, rent extraction and regulatory capture, is based on the unrealistic, and usually unstated, assumption of a monopolist regulator. In practice, the regulatory state is polycentric, involving numerous quasi-independent agencies with overlapping responsibilities. This has led to a more optimistic picture based on the idea of regulatory arbitrage: when firms can, to some extent, pick and choose their preferred regulator, regulatory agencies are constrained to deliver relatively efficient regulatory policies. In our view, this optimism is also unrealistic. We build a family of models that explores the possible regulatory outcomes, and use some aspects of Gordon Tullock's critique of the common law as a conceptual foundation for the analysis of the efficiency of a polycentric regulatory system.
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Evaluating Regulatory Impact Assessments in Education Policy.
by Clive R. Belfield
American Journal of Evaluation. Sep2019, Vol. 40 Issue 3, p335-353. 19p.

Benefit–cost analysis is an important part of regulatory decision-making, yet there are questions as to how often and how well it is performed. Here we examine 28 Regulatory Impact Assessments performed by the federal government on education regulations since 2006. We find many Regulatory Impact Assessments estimated costs, albeit using informal methods, but most failed to adequately report benefits. Also, most studies did not estimate net present value or clearly report methodological assumptions. In reviewing the relatively high quality studies we identified a number of discrepancies from best practice. Most importantly, few Regulatory Impact Assessments attempted a social benefit–cost analysis: Most examined "administrative burdens" from compliance with legislation. This alternative focus on administrative burdens has significant implications for economic evaluation in practice.
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Assessing the Legal and Ethical Impact of Data Reuse: Developing a Tool for Data Reuse Impact Assessments (DRIA).
by Bart Custers
European Data Protection Law Review (EDPL); 2019, Vol. 5 Issue 3, p317-337, 21p

In the data economy, many organisations, particularly SMEs may not be in a position to generate large amounts of data themselves, but may benefit from reusing data previously collected by others. Organisations that collect large amounts of data themselves may also benefit from reusing such data for other purposes than originally envisioned. However, under the current EU personal data protection legal framework, constituted by the General Data Protection Regulation, there are clear limits and restrictions to the reuse of personal data. Data can only be reused for purposes that are compatible with the original purposes for which the data were collected and processed. This is at odds with the reality of the data economy, in which there is a considerable need for data reuse. To address this issue, in this article we present the concept of a Data Reuse Impact Assessment (DRIA), which can be considered as an extension to existing Privacy and Data Protection Impact Assessments (PIAs and DPIAs). By adding new elements to these existing tools that specifically focus on the reuse of data and aspects regarding data ethics, a DRIA may typically be helpful to strike a better balance between the protection of personal data that is being reused and the need for data reuse in the data economy. Using a DRIA may contribute to increased trust among data subjects that their personal data is adequately protected. Data subjects, in turn, may then be willing to share more data, which on the long term may also be beneficial for the data economy.
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The growth-maximizing level of regulation: Evidence from a panel of international data
by Jac C. Heckelman
In European Journal of Political Economy September 2019 59:354-368

Existing evidence suggests that regulation diminishes economic growth. In theory, however, regulation may be either growth-enhancing or diminishing. We therefore empirically revisit the relation between regulation and growth, allowing for both positive and negative effects. In an unbalanced panel of 132 countries over eight time periods, we find evidence of a hump-shape relation between regulation and growth. The estimates imply that for more than 95% of the sample the total effect of regulation on growth is positive. The estimates also imply that about 60% of the sample observations are associated with over-regulation, relative to the growth-maximizing level. Similar findings apply to the (majority) subsample of non-OECD nations in the dataset. However, for the (minority) subsample of OECD nations, both the total and marginal effects of regulation on growth are negative.
Security
The security implications of fisheries.
by Elizabeth R. DeSombre
International Affairs. Sep2019, Vol. 95 Issue 5, p1019-1035. 17p.

Although frequently ignored in discussion of ocean security, fisheries have had central security implications throughout history. This article re-centres fisheries issues as both a cause and effect of security conflicts, and examines the implications of this re-framing for addressing this intersection. Underlying the security concerns that arise related to fisheries is depletion of global fish stocks. When stocks are overfished or not well managed, fishing vessels move to other areas, where they are more likely to come into conflict with each other and to threaten vulnerable stocks that some populations rely on, and states will claim or defend more ocean territory. These issues are explored here with four sets of security crises that can be best understood by examining the underlying or contributing aspect of fishery depletion: conflicts over sovereignty of small maritime islands, the rise of Somali maritime piracy, the 'fish wars' between otherwise friendly states in the middle and latter parts of the twentieth century, and the human insecurity represented by slavery-like conditions aboard some fishing vessels. Understanding the security implications of fisheries grants new reason and new approaches—ideally multi-jurisdictional, transnational and focused on capacity-building—to better protect fisheries and prevent security threats.
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The changing shape of youth justice: Models of practice.
by Roger Smith
Criminology & Criminal Justice: An International Journal; Nov2019, Vol. 19 Issue 5, p554-571, 18p

This article reports on a two-year investigation, which maps out contemporary approaches to the delivery of youth justice in England, in light of substantial recent changes in this area of practice. The findings are derived from a detailed examination of youth offending plans and a series of corroborative semi-structured interviews with managers and practitioners from selected youth offending services. Our inquiry has enabled us to develop a detailed three-fold typology of youth justice agencies' orientations towards practice, represented as 'offender management', 'targeted intervention' and 'children and young people first'; as well as a small number of 'outliers' where priorities are articulated rather differently. Our findings enable us to reflect on this evidence to suggest that there are a number of 'models' of youth justice practice operating in parallel; and that there does not appear at present to be the kind of 'orthodoxy' in place which has sometimes prevailed in this field. We also raise doubts about previous representations of unified models of youth justice presumed to be operative at national or jurisdictional levels. We conclude with a number of further observations about the combined effect of current influences on the organization and realization of youth justice, including the growing emphasis on localized responsibility for delivery and increasingly complex expectations of the service context.
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Disparities in Women's Prison Sentences: Exploring the Nexus Between Motherhood, Drug Offense, and Sentence Length.
by Ahram Cho
Feminist Criminology; Oct2019, Vol. 14 Issue 4, p420-440, 21p

Drawing upon focal concerns and familial paternalism frameworks, we explore the effects of motherhood, various maternal indicators, and type of offense on prison sentences using official and self-report data on 419 incarcerated women in the United States. Results revealed that drug offenders were sentenced more leniently than other offenders, whereas mothers were not sentenced differently from women without children. Mothers who lived with their children received shorter prison terms than mothers who were absent prior to arrest. This study fills gaps in knowledge on discretion in punishment in light of growing rates of female imprisonment.
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Direct harms and social consequences: An analysis of the impact of maternal imprisonment on dependent children in England and Wales.
by Shona Minson
Criminology & Criminal Justice: An International Journal; Nov2019, Vol. 19 Issue 5, p519-536, 18p

This article draws upon research with children whose mothers were imprisoned in England and Wales, to investigate the impacts of maternal imprisonment on dependent children. The research directly engaged with children, in accordance with Article 12 of the UNCRC 1989, and is set within an examination of the differentiated treatment in the family and criminal courts of England and Wales of children facing state initiated separation from a parent. The article explores children's 'confounding grief' and contends that this grief originates from social processes, experienced as a consequence of maternal imprisonment. 'Secondary prisonization' is characterized by changes in home and caregiver and the regulation of the mother and child relationship. 'Secondary stigmatization' occurs when children are stigmatized by virtue of their relationship with their mother. These harms to children call into question the state's fulfilment of its duty to protect children under Article 2 of the UNCRC 1989.
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(De-)Criminalizing Welfare? The Rise and Fall of Social Security Fraud Prosecutions in Australia.
by Scarlet Wilcock
British Journal of Criminology. Nov2019, Vol. 59 Issue 6, p1498-1519. 22p.

The social security fraud prosecution rate has fallen by approximately 74.9 per cent in Australia since 2010. This is remarkable considering the national dialogue continues to propound a 'zero tolerance' approach to fraud in the welfare system. Drawing on interviews with compliance staff from the Australian Department of Human Services, documentary research and a Foucauldian governmentality analytic, this article charts and interrogates the declining welfare fraud prosecution rate in the context of neoliberal welfare reform. It argues that this decline is at least partially the result of the reformulation of the objects of prosecution strategies by staff responsible for their enactment. This finding highlights the importance of localized accounts of welfare administration to supplement and complicate macro analyses of the 'criminalization of welfare' in Western industrialized nations.
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Tax
NEP (New Economic Papers) - Public Finance
This is an collection of email alerts of recent research, mostly papers, on public finance.
Click on a date on the page to see the content.
 
Political and public acceptability of a sugar-sweetened beverages tax: a mixed-method systematic review and meta-analysis
by Michelle Eykelenboom
The International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity. Sept 4, 2019, Vol. 16 Issue 1

Michelle Eykelenboom[sup.1], Maartje M. van Stralen[sup.1], Margreet R. Olthof[sup.1], Linda J. Schoonmade[sup.2], Ingrid H. M. Steenhuis[sup.1], Carry M. Renders[sup.1] and [sup.]
 
Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), as a component of a comprehensive strategy, has emerged as an apparent effective intervention to counteract the rising prevalence of overweight and obesity. Insight into the political and public acceptability may help adoption and implementation in countries with governments that are considering an SSBs tax. Hence, we aimed to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesize the existing qualitative and quantitative literature on political and public acceptability of an SSBs tax. Methods Four electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science) were searched until November 2018. The methodological quality of the included studies was assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Qualitative studies were analyzed using a thematic synthesis. Quantitative studies were analyzed using a random-effects meta-analysis for the pooling of proportions. Results Thirty-seven articles reporting on forty studies were eligible for inclusion. Five themes derived from the thematic synthesis: (i) beliefs about effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, (ii) appropriateness, (iii) economic and socioeconomic benefit, (iv) policy adoption and implementation, and (v) public mistrust of the industry, government and public health experts. Results of the meta-analysis indicated that of the public 42% (95% CI = 0.38-0.47) supports an SSBs tax, 39% (0.29-0.50) supports an SSBs tax as a strategy to reduce obesity, and 66% (0.60-0.72) supports an SSBs tax if revenue is used for health initiatives. Conclusions Beliefs about effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, appropriateness, economic and socioeconomic benefit, policy adoption and implementation, and public mistrust of the industry, government and public health experts have important implications for the political and public acceptability of an SSBs tax. We provide recommendations to increase acceptability and enhance successful adoption and implementation of an SSBs tax: (i) address inconsistencies between identified beliefs and scientific literature, (ii) use raised revenue for health initiatives, (iii) communicate transparently about the true purpose of the tax, and (iv) generate political priority for solutions to the challenges to implementation.
Tax administration
Comparative information on OECD and other advanced and emerging economies.
OECD, 2019
 
The eighth edition of the OECD's Tax Administration Series, this report provides internationally comparative data on aspects of tax systems and their administration in 58 advanced and emerging economies. The publication presents the results of the 2018 International Survey on Revenue Administration (ISORA), a multi-organisation international survey to collect national-level information and data on tax administration governed by four partner organisations: CIAT, the IMF, IOTA and the OECD. For the 2018 survey round, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) agreed to participate along with the four partner organisations.
The report has three parts. The first contains four chapters that examine and comment on tax administration performance and trends up to the end of the 2017 fiscal year. The second part presents ten tax administration-authored articles providing a country view on a range of topical issues to tax administration, while part three contains all the data tables that form the basis of the analysis in this report as well as details of the administrations participating in this report.
 
Changing fuel and carbon costs: implications for New Zealand agriculture.
Corong, Erwin; Strutt, A
Presented at the 22nd Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Warsaw, Poland
2019 
 
Considerable uncertainty exists about future fuel prices and carbon costs, with different trajectories for these variables having significant potential impacts on New Zealand agriculture. This paper explores the impacts of a range of possible changes in fuel and carbon prices on New Zealand’s key agro-food sectors, particularly dairy, beef and sheep.
We use the latest version of the GTAP-E model (Corong et al., 2019), based on the well-known Global Trade Analysis Project model (GTAP) (Hertel, 1997; Corong et al., 2017). This model enables us to capture inter-sectoral linkages within New Zealand as well as internationally, along with a relatively detailed specification of energy inputs and associated carbon emissions. To enable detailed analysis of key livestock sectors, we split the GTAP beef and sheep (i.e., “ctl”) sector. We use the latest GTAP version 10 Data Base, including carbon dioxide emission data distinguished by fuel type and user, supplemented with the GTAP non-carbon dioxide emissions data on other greenhouse gas emissions. This research is part of a larger study that explores the energy and carbon costs of New Zealand livestock agro-food products through their life cycle to overseas markets; we draw on data on energy use and emissions from this wider study to augment the New Zealand data available in the GTAP-E and non-carbon dioxide databases.
We model a range of scenarios, making different assumptions on future fuel prices and carbon costs. In particular, we consider low, moderate and high increases in these prices to explore different impacts on both global and New Zealand economies. We also explore potential trade diversion and carbon leakage effects if New Zealand were to impose carbon taxes unilaterally, as opposed to a global carbon tax policy.  
 
 
Towards wellbeing? Developments in Social Legislation and Policy in New Zealand. 
Reported period: 2018

Michael Fletcher
Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Social Law Reports No 2/2019.
 
 
Export tax and import-tariff avoidance: evidence from the trade data discrepancy in China-New Zealand trade.
Kuntal, K Das and Meriluoto, Laura.
New Zealand Economic Papers, 2019
 
We analyse discrepancy in the trade data between China and New Zealand, where what China reports as its exports to New Zealand and what New Zealand reports as its imports from China reached an alarming level of US$2.5 billion in 2014. We investigate the roles that export-tax and import-tariff avoidance play in explaining this discrepancy. We find strong evidence of export-tax avoidance for China’s exports to New Zealand that explains 11–27% of the missing exports, equivalent to 3.9–8.8% of true export value. We find only weak evidence of import-tariff avoidance in either direction.
 
Wider Interest
Scale and complexity implications of making New Zealand predator-free by 2050.
by Duane A. Peltzer
Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand; Sep2019, Vol. 49 Issue 3, p412-439, 28p

The goal to make New Zealand predator-free by 2050 has drawn strong praise and criticism, but these critiques have focused largely on economic or technological feasibility of long-term large-scale eradication. We suggest that achieving this goal is not a simple 'scaling-up' of current eradication efforts, but requires enduring co-ordination and integration of research, management and societal elements if a predator-free goal is to become a reality. Here we ask what are the key impediments to eradicating invasive species on a national scale? We highlight four interlinked issues that must be addressed to accomplish a predator-free New Zealand: (1) improved ecological understanding of interactive effects; (2) refinement and development of operational methods; (3) overcoming social and bioethical challenges; and (4) improving governance and partnerships with Māori. Understanding the linkages among these issues can also provide new insights into the biology and ecology of invasions, development of improved eradication methods, and social support or involvement in large-scale conservation management. Addressing these challenges will ultimately improve policy and management of biological invaders and set new international precedents.
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National accounts of OECD countries, Vol 2019 Issue 2.
Detailed tables.
OECD, 2019.
 
The National Accounts of OECD Countries, Detailed Tables includes, in addition to main aggregates including GDP, final consumption expenditure of households by purpose, simplified accounts for three main sectors: general government, corporations and households. Data are shown for 36 OECD countries and the Euro area back to 2007. Country tables are expressed in national currency. Data are based on the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) for all countries.
 
Radical transformation or technological intervention? Two paths for universal basic income
by E. Fouksman
In World Development October 2019 122:492-500

Highlights •We explore the complexity of a basic income trial for First Nations people in Australia.•We examine the class and racial implications of Silicon Valley basic income advocacy.•While UBI hold the potential to be powerful and emancipatory, it cannot be used as a technology void of relations of power.
The economy of well-being
Creating opportunities for people's well-being and economic growth.
OECD, 2019.
 
As well-being has matured as a statistical and measurement agenda, it has become increasingly relevant as a “compass” for policy, with a growing number of countries using well-being metrics to guide decision-making and inform budgetary processes. One remaining challenge has consisted in providing policy-makers with a better understanding of the linkages between the drivers of well-being and economic growth. This paper develops the concept of an “Economy of Well-being” as a basis for highlighting these linkages and showing how policy can most effectively leverage them. The paper defines an economy of well-being around the idea of a “virtuous circle” in which individual well-being and long-term economic growth are mutually reinforcing. It also explores the characteristics of an economy of well-being and the conditions under which it can be sustained. Secondly, based on a survey of existing empirical evidence, the paper contributes to outline how economies of well-being can be built. It provides analysis of several important channels through which economic growth and well-being support and reinforce one another, focusing on the multidimensional impact of policies in four areas that research has shown to be important for well-being: Education and Skills; Health; Social Protection and Redistribution; and Gender Equality.
 
Point of Order Mr Speaker : Modern Maori Political Leaders
by Selwyn Katene

eBook available on Overdrive. Click on link to resource in the Koha record.
Humble leadership : the power of relationships, openness, and trust
by Edgar H Schein
 
eBook available on Overdrive. Click on link to resource in the Koha record.
 
Maori and Parliament : Diverse Strategies and Compromises
by Maria Bargh

eBook available on Overdrive. Click on link to resource in the Koha record.
Indigenous Pacific Approaches to Climate Change : Pacific Island Countries
by Jenny Bryant-tokalau

eBook available on Overdrive. Click on link to resource in the Koha record.
OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report September 2019.
OECD, 2019.
 
 
Governance networks in the public sector
by Erik-Hans Klijn
 
This includes topics like Strategic Complexity in Governance Networks: Strategies, games, rounds and arenas, Institutional Complexity of Governance Networks: Patterns, rules and trust, 
Managing Substantive Complexities in Governance Networks, Managing Strategic Complexity in Governance Networks, Managing Institutional Complexities in Governance Networks, Governance Networks and Accountability, Evaluating Governance Networks, Analyzing Governance Networks and  Towards a New Public Governance? 
The Nature of Children's Well-being : Theory and Practice
by Alexander Bagattini

This book deals with Children's well-being and autonomy, Children's well-being and Authority and Children's well-being and policy.
Economic risks of climate change : an American prospectus
by Trevor Houser
 
EBSCO ebook. Click on link to resource in the Koha record.
 
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